Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: Mount St. Mary's Mountaineers (-6.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe44f4ff1d922653c5edb03954238bf094bd68f91ca3e22436907c99b42e854f4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Mount St. Mary's Mountaineersof Mount St. Mary's Mountaineers, Niagara Purple Eagles
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,133
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,424
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,133 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x94d8…8835backed Mount St. Mary's Mountaineers | 57c | 1,298$744 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$554.73 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c2b…2575backed Mount St. Mary's Mountaineers | 52c | 866.88$451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$416.1 | 609 | 49.8%303 W · 306 L | -9.2wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Niagara Purple Eagles | 44c | 661.49$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.5 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Niagara Purple Eagles | 43c | 655$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.38 | 2,896 | 50%1,448 W · 1,448 L | +71.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Niagara Purple Eagles | 45c | 295.42$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.72 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x450b…11d7backed Niagara Purple Eagles | 48c | 206.51$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.13 | 1,251 | 50.6%633 W · 618 L | +12.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x425e…8b6cbacked Niagara Purple Eagles | 49c | 202.3$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.13 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -4.1wins | -0.20per pick | 50cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x292e…172cbacked Niagara Purple Eagles | 48c | 103.26$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.56 | 833 | 50.2%418 W · 415 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1df2…1805backed Mount St. Mary's Mountaineers | 57c | 94.74$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.74 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabb8…6324backed Niagara Purple Eagles | 48c | 41.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.83 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.8wins | -0.20per pick | 41cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8b…d3d6backed Mount St. Mary's Mountaineers | 54c | 32.29$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.91 | 307 | 46.3%142 W · 165 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ea…5a8abacked Niagara Purple Eagles | 43c | 24.4$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4c…cec8backed Niagara Purple Eagles | 48c | 24.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb96…34b9backed Niagara Purple Eagles | 43c | 24.04$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Mount St. Mary's Mountaineers | 52c | 23.92$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.48 | 2,124 | 50.4%1,070 W · 1,054 L | +40.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Mount St. Mary's Mountaineers (-6.5)this page
- Niagara Purple Eagles vs. Mount St. Mary's MountaineersMount St. Mary's Mountaineers won
- Niagara Purple Eagles vs. Mount St. Mary's Mountaineers: O/U 128.5Over won
- Niagara Purple Eagles vs. Mount St. Mary's Mountaineers: O/U 129.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.