Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: Colorado State Rams (-8.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe480d746bc5dd830305baed6adfe0aaa60e3a792426335a03b5595efbd0dfa71
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Fresno State Bulldogsof Colorado State Rams, Fresno State Bulldogs
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,561
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,692
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,561 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x05b9…2adfbacked Colorado State Rams | 53c | 1,855$991 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$991.29 | 572 | 48.1%275 W · 297 L | -27.3wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Fresno State Bulldogs | 49c | 1,111$544 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$566.61 | 2,687 | 48.5%1,303 W · 1,384 L | +4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf630…7e65backed Colorado State Rams | 52c | 999.91$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$519.95 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Fresno State Bulldogs | 46c | 867.89$403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$464.48 | 3,905 | 58.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L | +165.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9b4…75a0backed Fresno State Bulldogs | 48c | 703.33$338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$365.65 | 92 | 44.6%41 W · 51 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Colorado State Rams | 51c | 645.38$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.81 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8461…c6e4backed Colorado State Rams | 54c | 435.64$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.61 | 182 | 45.1%82 W · 100 L | -15.9wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Fresno State Bulldogs | 46c | 374.99$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.49 | 939 | 41.6%391 W · 548 L | +25.4wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e40…cf85backed Fresno State Bulldogs | 46c | 282.59$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.6 | 219 | 37.4%82 W · 137 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Fresno State Bulldogs | 49c | 246$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.52 | 2,896 | 50%1,448 W · 1,448 L | +71.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Fresno State Bulldogs | 46c | 229.21$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.75 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x360b…982fbacked Colorado State Rams | 51c | 218.64$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.56 | 64 | 46.9%30 W · 34 L | -4.7wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Fresno State Bulldogs | 48c | 193.64$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.04 | 1,296 | 45.1%584 W · 712 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cec…5326backed Fresno State Bulldogs | 47c | 149.99$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.5 | 852 | 48.8%416 W · 436 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fd…e1f5backed Colorado State Rams | 51c | 148.69$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.73 | 1,162 | 55.2%641 W · 521 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x450b…11d7backed Fresno State Bulldogs | 51c | 116.62$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.14 | 1,251 | 50.6%633 W · 618 L | +12.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b15…fa73backed Fresno State Bulldogs | 51c | 99.13$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.57 | 383 | 51.7%198 W · 185 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x292e…172cbacked Fresno State Bulldogs | 52c | 94.43$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.87 | 833 | 50.2%418 W · 415 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83ea…c2efbacked Colorado State Rams | 53c | 93.27$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.8 | 230 | 54.3%125 W · 105 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4855…6a41backed Fresno State Bulldogs | 51c | 87.46$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 326 | 52.8%172 W · 154 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6135…efa0backed Fresno State Bulldogs | 48c | 82.28$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.78 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Fresno State Bulldogs | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 891 | 46.2%412 W · 479 L | +9.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabf6…129dbacked Fresno State Bulldogs | 51c | 42.88$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.07 | 121 | 53.7%65 W · 56 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x239b…f8bfbacked Fresno State Bulldogs | 48c | 25.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.56 | 316 | 66.1%209 W · 107 L | +24.8wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc250…5eafbacked Fresno State Bulldogs | 50c | 23.59$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.69 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 71cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Fresno State Bulldogs | 49c | 20.41$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.41 | 828 | 46.1%382 W · 446 L | +15.1wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Colorado State Rams (-8.5)this page
- Fresno State Bulldogs vs. Colorado State RamsColorado State Rams won
- Fresno State Bulldogs vs. Colorado State Rams: O/U 146.5Under won
- Fresno State Bulldogs vs. Colorado State Rams: O/U 147.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.