MLB · resolved market
Astros vs. White Sox
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe4a7b2ec1a53ae6883cb3179a694a93f11cbf4bec115519fbd7d5b1eb6d86272
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- White Soxof Astros, White Sox
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $50,125
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $50,437
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $50,125 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe3e4…6d84backed Astros | 66c | 37,328$24,636 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24,636.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5269…45f0backed White Sox | 34c | 37,108$12,617 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24,491.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked Astros | 37c | 2,000$739 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$739.39 | 513 | 34.5%177 W · 336 L | -31.2wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked White Sox | 34c | 1,778$613 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,165.64 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed White Sox | 56c | 1,680$940 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$740.07 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70f8…d0d5backed Astros | 67c | 1,596$1,070 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,069.63 | 213 | 56.3%120 W · 93 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed White Sox | 29c | 1,588$463 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,124.7 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed White Sox | 36c | 1,280$461 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$819.01 | 1,352 | 50.8%687 W · 665 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd8…2ee5backed White Sox | 38c | 1,020$388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$632.4 | 126 | 50.8%64 W · 62 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbde5…9c38backed Astros | 62c | 1,000$620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$620 | 511 | 51.7%264 W · 247 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf62d…d3a0backed Astros | 65c | 1,000$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650 | 150 | 50%75 W · 75 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd55c…34febacked Astros | 64c | 654.03$419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$418.58 | 376 | 49.5%186 W · 190 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed Astros | 36c | 609.38$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.38 | 797 | 40.4%322 W · 475 L | -19.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb13d…2e90backed White Sox | 53c | 609.37$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.7 | 686 | 56.4%387 W · 299 L | +38.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x19b8…9c8ebacked White Sox | 31c | 320$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220 | 394 | 36%142 W · 252 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Astros | 64c | 300$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192 | 2,203 | 50.3%1,108 W · 1,095 L | +29.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddc1…4485backed White Sox | 34c | 220$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +127.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Astros | 65c | 188$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.79 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Astros | 68c | 147.06$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Astros | 68c | 147.06$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a0…88eebacked White Sox | 62c | 102$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.21 | 283 | 48.8%138 W · 145 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed White Sox | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 229 | 46.3%106 W · 123 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72fe…e2cebacked Astros | 64c | 73$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.72 | 519 | 55.3%287 W · 232 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Astros | 67c | 57.76$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.7 | 2,045 | 53.8%1,100 W · 945 L | +32.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef63…96cbbacked Astros | 61c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 467 | 53.7%251 W · 216 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdb…7a75backed White Sox | 64c | 45.74$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.3 | 203 | 67%136 W · 67 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224b…f6b8backed Astros | 63c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 209 | 54.5%114 W · 95 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Astros | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 944 | 55.3%522 W · 422 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60ab…d681backed Astros | 67c | 22.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 743 | 56.9%423 W · 320 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02c7…3df7backed Astros | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 551 | 52.5%289 W · 262 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…5176backed Astros | 63c | 19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 435 | 42.1%183 W · 252 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28cb…4e39backed Astros | 59c | 19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.