Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Wong (-1.5) vs Moeller (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe4dfa84abd379ed0c68509054153574000d614fa110e4d2d8379d12ae9a655ea
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Moellerof Wong, Moeller
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,600
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,600
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,600 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x45e4…7e20backed Wong | 54c | 868.08$465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$465.13 | 193 | 46.6%90 W · 103 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Moeller | 47c | 600$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318 | 7,129 | 39.7%2,832 W · 4,297 L | -14.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d39…5408backed Wong | 57c | 399.98$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.99 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -3.1wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9c…a518backed Wong | 55c | 214$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.7 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Moeller | 45c | 203$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.83 | 7,774 | 47.8%3,715 W · 4,059 L | +40.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…c7a2backed Moeller | 43c | 162.79$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.79 | 305 | 55.4%169 W · 136 L | +10.7wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Moeller | 43c | 130.28$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.26 | 785 | 52.9%415 W · 370 L | +22.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…2bc3backed Moeller | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 362 | 61.6%223 W · 139 L | +40.9wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Moeller | 43c | 95.58$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.48 | 2,445 | 51.6%1,262 W · 1,183 L | +8.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Moeller | 47c | 80$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.4 | 4,041 | 45.7%1,848 W · 2,193 L | -28.8wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc475…8eefbacked Moeller | 44c | 68.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.18 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d93…fdefbacked Moeller | 77c | 47.83$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 92 | 54.3%50 W · 42 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…7d79backed Wong | 23c | 47.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2,639 | 46.4%1,224 W · 1,415 L | +19.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Wong (-1.5) vs Moeller (+1.5)this page
- Set 1 Winner: Wong vs MoellerMoeller won
- US Open, Qualification ATP: Coleman Wong vs Elmer MoellerColeman Wong won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.