Asian League · resolved market
Will Liaoning Tieren FC win on 2026-04-11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe4eff6da6452d625283d06f0a0e8bdc11e894473689bbc2b6fadef547e4fd2c2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,564
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,695
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,564 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 17c | 3,853$654 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$653.83 | 1,098 | 43.8%481 W · 617 L | -14.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed No | 80c | 1,139$911 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.17 | 1,522 | 54.9%835 W · 687 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9f9…0eaabacked Yes | 19c | 1,110$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.81 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe18a…fd87backed Yes | 35c | 1,000$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 201 | 38.3%77 W · 124 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9dd…b525backed Yes | 33c | 999.87$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.96 | 81 | 32.1%26 W · 55 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 28c | 845.31$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.61 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…9667backed Yes | 31c | 508$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.87 | 219 | 41.6%91 W · 128 L | -17.3wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…3dc9backed No | 71c | 508$359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.92 | 191 | 58.6%112 W · 79 L | +19.1wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Yes | 32c | 439.27$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.57 | 1,117 | 46.2%516 W · 601 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8790…010bbacked Yes | 16c | 365.11$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.42 | 131 | 53.4%70 W · 61 L | +14.1wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 70c | 364.78$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.38 | 1,254 | 51.4%644 W · 610 L | +9.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed No | 67c | 300$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99 | 233 | 47.6%111 W · 122 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…ebbfbacked Yes | 33c | 300$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 235 | 46.8%110 W · 125 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed No | 66c | 283.67$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.72 | 390 | 58.2%227 W · 163 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed No | 66c | 283.67$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.72 | 163 | 56.4%92 W · 71 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8098…5646backed No | 66c | 283.67$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.72 | 101 | 60.4%61 W · 40 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed No | 67c | 236.33$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.6 | 226 | 56.6%128 W · 98 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a54…4e11backed Yes | 35c | 200$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf37…8b49backed No | 65c | 200$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | -5.0wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 16c | 193.47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.03 | 843 | 47.7%402 W · 441 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed No | 67c | 161.2$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.58 | 401 | 56.4%226 W · 175 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x659f…04e4backed No | 66c | 150.39$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.4 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6569…7600backed No | 66c | 150.39$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.4 | 74 | 66.2%49 W · 25 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28dc…a1f2backed No | 69c | 100.55$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.17 | 125 | 52.8%66 W · 59 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x534b…983fbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…1c75backed Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 102 | 45.1%46 W · 56 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa85b…eb0ebacked Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 198 | 56.1%111 W · 87 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Yes | 29c | 99.79$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.94 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Yes | 65c | 88.9$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.19 | 471 | 55.8%263 W · 208 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Yes | 17c | 86.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 464 | 22.6%105 W · 359 L | -22.6wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1608…eeb8backed No | 71c | 85.71$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.86 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | -3.2wins | -0.11per pick | 74cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed No | 67c | 71.98$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.05 | 282 | 53.5%151 W · 131 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e62…fd00backed Yes | 18c | 68.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…04bebacked No | 71c | 64.6$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.43 | 98 | 59.2%58 W · 40 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bb…0fe1backed Yes | 33c | 61.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.39 | 246 | 56.9%140 W · 106 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed No | 67c | 60$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 88 | 64.8%57 W · 31 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8611…2c36backed Yes | 31c | 58.21$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c31…8616backed Yes | 27c | 55.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +29%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed No | 67c | 52.49$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.12 | 478 | 60.3%288 W · 190 L | +15.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa8…0b19backed No | 67c | 52.49$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.12 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked No | 67c | 52.49$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.12 | 345 | 58.6%202 W · 143 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xade2…8757backed No | 67c | 52.49$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.12 | 68 | 47.1%32 W · 36 L | -6.9wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Yes | 31c | 51.01$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.81 | 139 | 51.1%71 W · 68 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85b8…9d57backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4155…fa41backed Yes | 72c | 50$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 117 | 64.1%75 W · 42 L | +9.4wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2116…eb8fbacked No | 31c | 45$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +4.2wins | +0.17per pick | 20cpaid | +100.9%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x94e0…b78ebacked Yes | 35c | 43.31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b44…be1ebacked No | 69c | 41.94$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9720…2c24backed No | 34c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -44%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb4…9854backed Yes | 78c | 38.65$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea8d…89b1backed No | 67c | 37.24$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.24 | 71 | 56.3%40 W · 31 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbac4…86dbbacked No | 67c | 32.01$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 54 | 64.8%35 W · 19 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa42c…b22ebacked No | 67c | 32.01$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 33 | 75.8%25 W · 8 L | +4.6wins | +0.14per pick | 62cpaid | +29%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x26dd…0249backed Yes | 33c | 31.89$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 95 | 52.6%50 W · 45 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacce…4515backed Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +2.6wins | +0.15per pick | 41cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x05d8…31cfbacked No | 79c | 28.9$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.07 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa923…6704backed No | 66c | 23.26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.91 | 165 | 61.2%101 W · 64 L | +6.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06e7…3acabacked No | 67c | 22.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 106 | 53.8%57 W · 49 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 68c | 20.14$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.44 | 103 | 61.2%63 W · 40 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…38ccbacked No | 67c | 19.45$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.42 | 22 | 77.3%17 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 67cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a1c…ddeebacked No | 68c | 16.54$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.23 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +64.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked No | 67c | 15.02$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 167 | 59.9%100 W · 67 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b8b…2c87backed No | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.65 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +72.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Liaoning Tieren FC win on 2026-04-11?this page
- Will Qingdao Xihaian FC vs. Liaoning Tieren FC end in a draw?Yes won
- Will Qingdao Xihaian FC win on 2026-04-11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.