Tennis · resolved market
Shelton vs. Humbert: Total Sets O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe5290dd59d0c2a5f6b1f8e240dd010a5a9c4e3f57dde8b6fd65bc259901f36d1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Under 3.5of Over 3.5, Under 3.5
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,706
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,817
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,706 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf2ce…5462backed Under 3.5 | 61c | 2,349$1,433 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$915.79 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a26…1851backed Over 3.5 | 61c | 2,000$1,220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,219.95 | 600 | 53.8%323 W · 277 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under 3.5 | 34c | 482.05$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.15 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5fe…b52dbacked Over 3.5 | 5c | 450$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 8cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e7…caa8backed Over 3.5 | 5c | 400$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 108 | 5.6%6 W · 102 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Under 3.5 | 38c | 327.26$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.51 | 2,343 | 51.6%1,209 W · 1,134 L | +95.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87e8…5e6ebacked Over 3.5 | 66c | 303.03$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 419 | 55.8%234 W · 185 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a50…9e46backed Over 3.5 | 67c | 231$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.51 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under 3.5 | 33c | 205$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.35 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6eac…5bc2backed Over 3.5 | 66c | 166.67$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | -5.3wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xca39…4ed7backed Over 3.5 | 68c | 147.06$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 140 | 60.7%85 W · 55 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfccd…b1afbacked Over 3.5 | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 25cpaid | +84.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x44c9…2bd8backed Under 3.5 | 39c | 68.54$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.81 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.14per pick | 58cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x205b…d66abacked Under 3.5 | 39c | 60$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.6 | 28 | 85.7%24 W · 4 L | +4.6wins | +0.16per pick | 69cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe4…4199backed Under 3.5 | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.28 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +65.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc7…f1b8backed Over 3.5 | 68c | 36.76$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc81…5df2backed Under 3.5 | 39c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Shelton vs. Humbert: Total Sets O/U 3.5this page
- Australian Open Men's: Ben Shelton vs Ugo HumbertShelton won
- Set 1 Winner: Shelton vs HumbertShelton won
- Set Handicap: Shelton (-1.5) vs Humbert (+1.5)Shelton won
- Set Handicap: Shelton (-2.5) vs Humbert (+2.5)Shelton won
- Shelton vs. Humbert: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.