Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Norrie (-1.5) vs Hijikata (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe534faa0f7212defff1db1bc9096e0bca81b3bf754026e116f32e8b48173b520
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Norrieof Norrie, Hijikata
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,110
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,110 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdc16…40a5backed Hijikata | 50c | 2,393$1,185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,185 | 1,118 | 42.8%479 W · 639 L | -7.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf98c…bf06backed Norrie | 53c | 1,000$530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a48…9f3ebacked Hijikata | 47c | 1,000$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Norrie | 45c | 778.46$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$429.8 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ce…7ec8backed Norrie | 49c | 529.63$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.11 | 239 | 45.6%109 W · 130 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c2c…90d4backed Hijikata | 52c | 506.12$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.12 | 234 | 54.7%128 W · 106 L | +10.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Norrie | 47c | 495.73$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.55 | 4,076 | 39.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L | +93.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddc…9c0fbacked Norrie | 48c | 479.15$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.16 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Norrie | 59c | 349.18$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.68 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa373…b6dcbacked Hijikata | 55c | 319.13$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 543 | 48.1%261 W · 282 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Hijikata | 49c | 297$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.56 | 1,028 | 33.6%345 W · 683 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Norrie | 50c | 284.96$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.48 | 246 | 34.1%84 W · 162 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26fb…67b8backed Norrie | 63c | 266.45$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.59 | 651 | 57.1%372 W · 279 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4537…fd02backed Norrie | 50c | 200.2$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.2 | 389 | 51.9%202 W · 187 L | -16.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f90…a473backed Hijikata | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 127 | 55.9%71 W · 56 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa307…8ea3backed Hijikata | 50c | 195.9$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.95 | 227 | 47.6%108 W · 119 L | +14.9wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4be1…aa70backed Norrie | 51c | 195.77$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.77 | 101 | 46.5%47 W · 54 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b7f…e826backed Norrie | 67c | 149.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.25 | 693 | 50.5%350 W · 343 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…2bc3backed Norrie | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 361 | 61.8%223 W · 138 L | +41.3wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +25%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5b5f…3397backed Hijikata | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 427 | 43.8%187 W · 240 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Hijikata | 50c | 94$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 1,414 | 41.1%581 W · 833 L | -21.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Norrie | 48c | 83.33$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.33 | 2,418 | 51.7%1,249 W · 1,169 L | +10.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc88f…987abacked Hijikata | 49c | 70$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.3 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…f9d1backed Hijikata | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 299 | 47.5%142 W · 157 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc8…f45bbacked Hijikata | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 283 | 22.3%63 W · 220 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5700…a854backed Hijikata | 46c | 43.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.28 | 255 | 44.3%113 W · 142 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Hijikata | 50c | 43.45$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.51 | 1,809 | 43.8%793 W · 1,016 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddf5…aaa3backed Norrie | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 692 | 53.3%369 W · 323 L | -10.4wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Norrie | 46c | 41$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.3 | 7,139 | 49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L | +109.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Norrie | 50c | 34.79$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.39 | 619 | 53.3%330 W · 289 L | +18.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Norrie | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 354 | 39.8%141 W · 213 L | -15.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7027…fababacked Norrie | 49c | 30.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.51 | 58 | 60.3%35 W · 23 L | +6.4wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5d16…0abbbacked Norrie | 48c | 20.85$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.84 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Norrie (-1.5) vs Hijikata (+1.5)this page
- BNP Paribas Open: Rinky Hijikata vs Cameron NorrieCameron Norrie won
- Hijikata vs. Norrie: Match O/U 21.5Under won
- Hijikata vs. Norrie: Match O/U 22.5Under won
- Hijikata vs. Norrie: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5Under won
- Rinky Hijikata vs. Cameron Norrie: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- Set 1 Winner: Hijikata vs NorrieNorrie won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.