Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on August 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe54f6bbe19f6d11d06f014423c412cc6c1779ffa7a7653dd2409ad095a971451
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,139
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,923
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,139 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 6c | 2,093$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.13 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 3c | 1,311$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.36 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e42…4938backed Yes | 8c | 568.32$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.84 | 388 | 30.2%117 W · 271 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdadb…1870backed Yes | 3c | 545.09$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.81 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 493.32$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.82 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 11c | 402.97$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.74 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd37…9135backed Yes | 9c | 388.48$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.58 | 179 | 40.8%73 W · 106 L | +29.0wins | +0.16per pick | 25cpaid | +113.7%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6a…f60cbacked Yes | 20c | 353.5$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.51 | 294 | 27.9%82 W · 212 L | +18.6wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5533…51babacked Yes | 4c | 346.62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.22 | 188 | 4.8%9 W · 179 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | +91.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 4c | 335.01$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 18c | 322.04$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.34 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ebb…35d7backed Yes | 3c | 318.62$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 4c | 304.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked Yes | 7c | 243.15$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.02 | 472 | 39.8%188 W · 284 L | +31.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 5c | 216.04$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 22c | 209.56$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.83 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35fc…ac54backed Yes | 8c | 160.21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 247 | 51.8%128 W · 119 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa16c…7936backed No | 67c | 141.27$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.34 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 75c | 138.39$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.62 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7b…7a75backed Yes | 20c | 99.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 271 | 29.2%79 W · 192 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eeb…b6bdbacked Yes | 13c | 84$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 88 | 30.7%27 W · 61 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9acd…a3febacked No | 54c | 77.1$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.14 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe49e…ef6bbacked No | 61c | 74.99$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.6 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bed…bbf5backed Yes | 20c | 69.65$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.73 | 118 | 56.8%67 W · 51 L | +12.1wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb99b…b581backed No | 53c | 68.52$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.21 | 104 | 39.4%41 W · 63 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe5…91aabacked No | 65c | 61.33$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.33 | 70 | 51.4%36 W · 34 L | -6.5wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe175…a473backed No | 57c | 58.11$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.07 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -3.0wins | -0.21per pick | 57cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7112…6d11backed Yes | 48c | 58$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.07 | 349 | 70.2%245 W · 104 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10fb…4651backed No | 57c | 55$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.85 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b6…0d2bbacked No | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.95 | 143 | 72%103 W · 40 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked Yes | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed No | 76c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.42 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cb…af17backed Yes | 47c | 25.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 84 | 42.9%36 W · 48 L | +4.8wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 73c | 22.44$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.08 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xea12…993bbacked No | 74c | 13.82$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.54 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | -9.2wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on August 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C or below on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on August 20?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on August 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.