Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on August 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd081e271b1735f0d52c0156d0821d2a08d2545f86956a8364ec5bcffd0116e75
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,676
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,591
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,676 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 9c | 1,385$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,259.47 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf255…a6e8backed No | 43c | 587.7$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.86 | 82 | 69.5%57 W · 25 L | +8.7wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 39c | 561.48$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.19 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a9c…079dbacked Yes | 65c | 418.63$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.3 | 94 | 36.2%34 W · 60 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +94.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe49e…ef6bbacked No | 33c | 399.96$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.99 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 9c | 382.15$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$348.39 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 13c | 340.87$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.45 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5203…b975backed Yes | 11c | 300$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267 | 186 | 41.4%77 W · 109 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed29…3024backed Yes | 12c | 275.98$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.86 | 241 | 39.8%96 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4989…983ebacked Yes | 25c | 262.73$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.81 | 336 | 26.8%90 W · 246 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…d803backed Yes | 27c | 260.05$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.86 | 401 | 32.9%132 W · 269 L | +24.7wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 33c | 254.15$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.14 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 11c | 212$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.68 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1e14…7ef7backed Yes | 18c | 208.22$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.9 | 46 | 26.1%12 W · 34 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x10fb…4651backed Yes | 48c | 184.96$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.69 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6a…f60cbacked Yes | 17c | 170.32$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.74 | 294 | 27.9%82 W · 212 L | +18.6wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa0c…ef83backed Yes | 11c | 168.8$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.07 | 100 | 58%58 W · 42 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e42…4938backed Yes | 58c | 168.24$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.18 | 388 | 30.2%117 W · 271 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 19c | 167.78$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.06 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 15c | 158.42$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.82 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 33c | 155$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.54 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 21c | 152.37$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.99 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32d1…e5c8backed No | 7c | 150$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 47 | 12.8%6 W · 41 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 9cpaid | +56%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7eeb…b6bdbacked Yes | 9c | 142$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.6 | 88 | 30.7%27 W · 61 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 28c | 140$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1c7…d291backed Yes | 56c | 139.99$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.6 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 13c | 139.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.09 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 44c | 135.18$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.46 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xdadb…1870backed Yes | 67c | 122.55$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 67c | 118.82$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.84 | 403 | 37.2%150 W · 253 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a09…9b7fbacked No | 35c | 113.85$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.48 | 158 | 50.6%80 W · 78 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 18c | 112.2$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.49 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 11c | 108.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 13c | 102$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.2 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed No | 66c | 100$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 371 | 50.4%187 W · 184 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 16c | 98.15$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.37 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa16c…7936backed Yes | 62c | 90.87$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.96 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 30c | 85.89$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.42 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cda…d7c6backed No | 61c | 82.25$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 59c | 76.64$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.11 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f7…f8debacked Yes | 43c | 71.63$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.74 | 287 | 42.5%122 W · 165 L | +24.3wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cb…af17backed Yes | 39c | 70.27$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.63 | 84 | 42.9%36 W · 48 L | +4.8wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb7bd…68b0backed Yes | 35c | 66.9$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.22 | 59 | 37.3%22 W · 37 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 22c | 66.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.57 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 51c | 64.23$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.02 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 24c | 60.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.8 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe89c…0124backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.4wins | -0.34per pick | 63cpaid | -60%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 51c | 44.95$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.95 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e82…10efbacked Yes | 63c | 44.77$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.35 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 69cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e6f…528cbacked Yes | 65c | 42.98$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.17 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed No | 79c | 40$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.6 | 425 | 55.1%234 W · 191 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 435 | 40.5%176 W · 259 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78ab…a53fbacked Yes | 65c | 39.01$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.69 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 43c | 33.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 57c | 28.82$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.39 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked Yes | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 58c | 25.4$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.69 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01e5…49a3backed Yes | 72c | 22.37$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.17 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 64c | 21.75$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 57c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b27…ff88backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 98 | 49%48 W · 50 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x463f…f78ebacked Yes | 73c | 18.18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.85 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5938…7788backed Yes | 69c | 15.79$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.96 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on August 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C or below on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on August 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.