Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on August 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xccb0adc92b40485107f97368bc04cc7401781d283768a7eb0ecb68904162612d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,869
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,987
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,869 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf9f2…771fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,797$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.61 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,609$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.54 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 30c | 803.24$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.53 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked No | 78c | 370.9$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.6 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 15c | 285.36$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.93 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c90…17efbacked No | 77c | 260.91$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.67 | 288 | 47.2%136 W · 152 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e14…7ef7backed Yes | 23c | 200$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 46 | 26.1%12 W · 34 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe49e…ef6bbacked Yes | 17c | 200$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 22c | 188.47$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.69 | 403 | 37.2%150 W · 253 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 21c | 164$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.44 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 25c | 156.25$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.38 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 72c | 151$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.28 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb87f…f7d4backed No | 79c | 148.35$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.15 | 149 | 57.7%86 W · 63 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 18c | 146.06$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.65 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 20c | 139.98$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.3 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61f7…f8debacked Yes | 9c | 137.06$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 287 | 42.5%122 W · 165 L | +24.3wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8c…3e30backed Yes | 46c | 119.77$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.55 | 123 | 50.4%62 W · 61 L | -14.7wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f4…3fdbbacked Yes | 24c | 110.6$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.96 | 273 | 35.9%98 W · 175 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc98a…5980backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.21 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 17c | 97.95$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.44 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed No | 58c | 94$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.48 | 371 | 50.4%187 W · 184 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd322…8503backed No | 69c | 92.3$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.84 | 86 | 55.8%48 W · 38 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c2…e1e0backed No | 79c | 90.57$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.85 | 172 | 51.7%89 W · 83 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10fb…4651backed Yes | 20c | 89.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 79c | 75$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.01 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 14c | 74.61$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 65c | 73.63$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.65 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 20c | 66.11$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.22 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…d803backed Yes | 18c | 59.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 401 | 32.9%132 W · 269 L | +24.7wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 22c | 53.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 79c | 51$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9cf…b443backed Yes | 30c | 49.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 67 | 28.4%19 W · 48 L | -8.8wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…24e0backed No | 76c | 47.26$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.14 | 258 | 77.5%200 W · 58 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 78c | 44.97$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.83 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 66c | 39.47$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 59c | 36.26$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x132f…275dbacked No | 77c | 28$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.44 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 75cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 52c | 25.7$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.46 | 285 | 46.3%132 W · 153 L | -17.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbdc9…6dfdbacked No | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 205 | 74.6%153 W · 52 L | +7.5wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 76c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.01 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 77c | 20.03$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.61 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 66c | 17.13$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.89 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 70c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 72c | 13.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.86 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab5c…c6f3backed No | 77c | 12.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.99 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on August 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C or below on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on August 20?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on August 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.