NBA · resolved market
Spurs vs. Timberwolves: O/U 234.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe5573a11f7004b8eebc2954a13fc7977f2674fefa34fa92f807798fbf8d283de
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,012
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,262
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,012 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe6ee…b3aabacked Under | 51c | 5,330$2,738 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,737.6 | 362 | 48.9%177 W · 185 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 48c | 3,888$1,861 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,027.59 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce99…637ebacked Over | 52c | 1,507$780 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$726.63 | 74 | 58.1%43 W · 31 L | +6.5wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9519…3b2ebacked Under | 52c | 958.18$502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$502.26 | 178 | 56.2%100 W · 78 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e00…eb46backed Over | 51c | 784.8$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384.55 | 363 | 51.2%186 W · 177 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 54c | 659$359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.23 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x178d…0b05backed Under | 38c | 499.99$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a12…c0d6backed Under | 55c | 300$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.36 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +3.3wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…49a8backed Over | 49c | 275.69$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.6 | 356 | 51.1%182 W · 174 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5838…a031backed Under | 5c | 220$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18a6…0b89backed Over | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc566…f8d7backed Under | 55c | 150$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.5 | 165 | 47.3%78 W · 87 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 51c | 139.92$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.36 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Over | 72c | 105$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.83 | 2,169 | 40.8%885 W · 1,284 L | -8.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.3 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Over | 39c | 70.59$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.79 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75e1…1b07backed Under | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x27ec…ad73backed Under | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 194 | 51.5%100 W · 94 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9e4…b6adbacked Under | 55c | 54.36$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +3.7wins | +0.12per pick | 57cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 49c | 48$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.52 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Over | 51c | 48$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.52 | 801 | 48.3%387 W · 414 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19c9…2e09backed Under | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e0c…b90abacked Over | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 174 | 44.3%77 W · 97 L | -6.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46a0…f721backed Over | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb966…cac6backed Under | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 253 | 51%129 W · 124 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c86…288cbacked Over | 66c | 22.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 92 | 42.4%39 W · 53 L | -6.9wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe2…28e8backed Under | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spurs vs. Timberwolves: O/U 234.5this page
- Spread: Timberwolves (-3.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-4.5)Timberwolves won
- Spurs vs. TimberwolvesTimberwolves won
- Spurs vs. Timberwolves: O/U 230.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Timberwolves: O/U 231.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Timberwolves: O/U 232.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Timberwolves: O/U 233.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.