NBA · resolved market
Spurs vs. Timberwolves: O/U 232.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf311043f454947e89d165b8636a54144b6666df07161d11560b83e76e6cdf039
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,572
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,752
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,572 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 45c | 2,798$1,257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,256.93 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec13…862bbacked Over | 55c | 2,111$1,161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$950.05 | 288 | 50.3%145 W · 143 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7209…b3c1backed Under | 47c | 1,753$830 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$830 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Over | 54c | 1,389$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$638.89 | 653 | 39.5%258 W · 395 L | -24.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Over | 55c | 909.09$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$409.09 | 227 | 56.8%129 W · 98 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Under | 47c | 503.69$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.7 | 1,911 | 45.4%868 W · 1,043 L | +22.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Over | 53c | 419.44$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.14 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x836e…595cbacked Over | 56c | 268$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.92 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x615f…01e4backed Under | 45c | 247$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.15 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.30per pick | 45cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0108…a80fbacked Under | 45c | 235$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.75 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe342…32bcbacked Under | 45c | 228$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.6 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b56…6ce6backed Over | 56c | 227$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.88 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5563…0f9dbacked Over | 56c | 211$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.84 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccb0…1abebacked Under | 45c | 203$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Under | 45c | 200$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 1,197 | 47.5%569 W · 628 L | -32.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…49a8backed Over | 53c | 198.11$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.11 | 356 | 51.1%182 W · 174 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeeac…860abacked Over | 56c | 190$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.6 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 54cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbba5…2a39backed Over | 56c | 187$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.28 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18a6…0b89backed Over | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…390bbacked Over | 56c | 178$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.32 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf90…b721backed Under | 45c | 174$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.3 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f6…a5edbacked Under | 45c | 173$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.85 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbfe…64eebacked Over | 56c | 156$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.64 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.16per pick | 53cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2408…83e5backed Under | 45c | 148$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.6 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.31per pick | 48cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbdb5…7a65backed Under | 45c | 141$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.45 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x92fe…dde5backed Over | 56c | 141$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40f4…3984backed Under | 45c | 137$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.65 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8577…686bbacked Over | 56c | 129$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.76 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15b1…34d2backed Under | 45c | 123$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.35 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 48cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4684…82f3backed Over | 56c | 122$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.68 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb50d…81debacked Under | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61b8…829cbacked Over | 55c | 28.71$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spurs vs. Timberwolves: O/U 232.5this page
- Spread: Timberwolves (-3.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-4.5)Timberwolves won
- Spurs vs. TimberwolvesTimberwolves won
- Spurs vs. Timberwolves: O/U 230.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Timberwolves: O/U 231.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Timberwolves: O/U 233.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Timberwolves: O/U 234.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.