La Liga · resolved market
UD Almería vs. Real Valladolid CF: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe5684b2095fc90b22f316598777fd722000fc66bf973e4870b1dce4169c55721
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,103
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,158
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,103 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 70c | 4,202$2,930 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,272.5 | 4,753 | 47.1%2,238 W · 2,515 L | -21.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 30c | 4,183$1,253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,253.03 | 3,461 | 43%1,489 W · 1,972 L | +31.4wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaa4…8968backed Under | 72c | 2,731$1,978 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$753.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x683a…274ebacked Over | 22c | 1,824$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395.35 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b5…a2a7backed Under | 60c | 833.33$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.33 | 83 | 43.4%36 W · 47 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b2…5f43backed Over | 42c | 599.99$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e61…0e06backed Over | 30c | 514.8$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.05 | 94 | 23.4%22 W · 72 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 63c | 468.77$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.13 | 923 | 45.5%420 W · 503 L | -30.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b0f…3476backed Over | 29c | 412.47$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Over | 31c | 299.99$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93 | 132 | 30.3%40 W · 92 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9abb…3f96backed Under | 78c | 266.5$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.63 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 69cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…d743backed Over | 40c | 207.95$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.18 | 98 | 23.5%23 W · 75 L | -8.0wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -27%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd147…ecbdbacked Over | 62c | 200$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124 | 96 | 41.7%40 W · 56 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb253…26febacked Under | 72c | 190.24$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.22 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f7e…c230backed Over | 55c | 179.05$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.48 | 124 | 45.2%56 W · 68 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf22b…8f84backed Under | 53c | 156.25$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.44 | 25 | 76%19 W · 6 L | +3.9wins | +0.16per pick | 60cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x86a6…1b3ebacked Under | 71c | 149.15$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.25 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Over | 28c | 126.47$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.93 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 47c | 113$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.11 | 1,662 | 43.7%727 W · 935 L | -23.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x014c…38ccbacked Over | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9df2…99f5backed Over | 40c | 62.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 88 | 43.2%38 W · 50 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef89…4239backed Under | 72c | 55.56$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.56 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…7d79backed Under | 64c | 53.13$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.13 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -4.2wins | -0.20per pick | 49cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…c453backed Under | 59c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 62cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce8b…738abacked Over | 31c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 46cpaid | -75%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…16c5backed Over | 62c | 40.32$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 76 | 47.4%36 W · 40 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a5a…3427backed Under | 78c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 69 | 56.5%39 W · 30 L | -5.7wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe906…aa69backed Under | 69c | 36.23$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.23 | 75 | 48%36 W · 39 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90c8…4573backed Under | 75c | 22.67$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 11 | 90.9%10 W · 1 L | +2.7wins | +0.24per pick | 67cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc978…706bbacked Under | 68c | 21.39$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.91 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Under | 74c | 15.17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.91 | 198 | 65.2%129 W · 69 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- UD Almería vs. Real Valladolid CF: O/U 2.5this page
- Spread: Real Valladolid CF (-1.5)UD Almería won
- Spread: Real Valladolid CF (-2.5)UD Almería won
- Spread: UD Almería (-1.5)Real Valladolid CF won
- Spread: UD Almería (-2.5)Real Valladolid CF won
- UD Almería vs. Real Valladolid CF: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- UD Almería vs. Real Valladolid CF: O/U 0.5Over won
- UD Almería vs. Real Valladolid CF: O/U 1.5Under won
- UD Almería vs. Real Valladolid CF: O/U 3.5Under won
- UD Almería vs. Real Valladolid CF: O/U 4.5Under won
- UD Almería vs. Real Valladolid CF: O/U 5.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.