La Liga · resolved market
UD Almería vs. Real Valladolid CF: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x53415a7702428b4fc26238c32e68ba361634ec1d7afd4f033f689dc5f1f34d39
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,808
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,873
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,808 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 47c | 5,622$2,654 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,968.56 | 4,729 | 47.1%2,225 W · 2,504 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05e3…4b87backed Over | 50c | 4,000$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 200 | 54%108 W · 92 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 44c | 1,574$692 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$882.32 | 3,444 | 43%1,482 W · 1,962 L | +31.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f42…8bbcbacked Over | 58c | 1,227$710 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$710 | 175 | 30.9%54 W · 121 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4871…0742backed Over | 58c | 862.16$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 68cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e61…0e06backed Over | 58c | 664.51$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$383.13 | 94 | 23.4%22 W · 72 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Over | 43c | 573.85$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.21 | 132 | 30.3%40 W · 92 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x488e…ea2ebacked Over | 61c | 450$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 41c | 373.42$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.55 | 680 | 50.4%343 W · 337 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 47c | 318.82$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.76 | 923 | 45.5%420 W · 503 L | -30.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b18…dd26backed Over | 54c | 281.16$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.83 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0176…910ebacked Under | 39c | 256.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.41 | 51 | 66.7%34 W · 17 L | +5.7wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x012a…c01dbacked Over | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | +4.0wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa36c…5754backed Under | 50c | 210$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.8wins | +0.35per pick | 53cpaid | +71.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfdf4…40fabacked Over | 75c | 203.98$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.99 | 68 | 52.9%36 W · 32 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764f…6b8abacked Over | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -30%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1d3…f1abbacked Under | 37c | 160$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +173.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a67…2552backed Over | 48c | 130.96$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Under | 50c | 116$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 224 | 46%103 W · 121 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b2…5f43backed Over | 27c | 97.86$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.42 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7203…795abacked Over | 65c | 68.72$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.67 | 72 | 65.3%47 W · 25 L | +7.1wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +34%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x45d5…a7a0backed Under | 17c | 59.4$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.11 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…1212backed Under | 52c | 55.77$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.77 | 97 | 40.2%39 W · 58 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7113…dba4backed Under | 38c | 50.66$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.66 | 203 | 41.9%85 W · 118 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0954…012abacked Over | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Over | 58c | 47.35$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.46 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 64c | 44.1$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.15 | 175 | 62.9%110 W · 65 L | +32.1wins | +0.18per pick | 45cpaid | +64.6%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x3d70…d0a6backed Under | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +3.6wins | +0.17per pick | 45cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xca43…b369backed Under | 45c | 38.28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.1 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9df2…99f5backed Over | 66c | 37.87$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 88 | 43.2%38 W · 50 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9761…9070backed Under | 77c | 37.66$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.66 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19d8…965abacked Under | 55c | 35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.7 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 74c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 1,651 | 43.9%724 W · 927 L | -21.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4061…dde5backed Over | 62c | 24.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -3.9wins | -0.19per pick | 29cpaid | -76.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Over | 56c | 22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 744 | 57.5%428 W · 316 L | +22.4wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a9f…8473backed Under | 49c | 21.02$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Under | 49c | 21$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Under | 50c | 20.62$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.31 | 357 | 59.4%212 W · 145 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- UD Almería vs. Real Valladolid CF: O/U 1.5this page
- Spread: Real Valladolid CF (-1.5)UD Almería won
- Spread: Real Valladolid CF (-2.5)UD Almería won
- Spread: UD Almería (-1.5)Real Valladolid CF won
- Spread: UD Almería (-2.5)Real Valladolid CF won
- UD Almería vs. Real Valladolid CF: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- UD Almería vs. Real Valladolid CF: O/U 0.5Over won
- UD Almería vs. Real Valladolid CF: O/U 2.5Under won
- UD Almería vs. Real Valladolid CF: O/U 3.5Under won
- UD Almería vs. Real Valladolid CF: O/U 4.5Under won
- UD Almería vs. Real Valladolid CF: O/U 5.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.