Fifa International · resolved market
Will Montenegro win on 2025-10-09?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe5894149f90c91473588e9ec639d4d5e7945af28fce558cfb97831cb202ea4b8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,844
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,832
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,844 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x94fb…d6cbbacked Yes | 40c | 7,505$2,989 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,988.8 | 236 | 22%52 W · 184 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc30…c8a5backed Yes | 26c | 7,068$1,840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,839.76 | 79 | 29.1%23 W · 56 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 62c | 6,970$4,335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,634.57 | 4,595 | 40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L | -91.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked No | 72c | 2,809$2,022 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$786.44 | 173 | 45.7%79 W · 94 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 63c | 2,591$1,632 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$959.18 | 246 | 47.6%117 W · 129 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0727…ec27backed Yes | 38c | 1,737$660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$660 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa73…87f0backed Yes | 40c | 1,572$630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$630 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -51%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe636…9d26backed No | 61c | 1,522$929 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$593.68 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 73c | 1,314$963 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.02 | 3,696 | 36.9%1,364 W · 2,332 L | -44.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked No | 59c | 1,041$617 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$424.25 | 82 | 40.2%33 W · 49 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 29c | 1,000$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.65 | 227 | 31.7%72 W · 155 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe671…a682backed Yes | 37c | 666$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.42 | 77 | 40.3%31 W · 46 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09a5…b5c3backed Yes | 44c | 579.24$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ef4…4e4ebacked No | 65c | 571$371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.85 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7292…6bd3backed No | 68c | 442.76$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.76 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e10…70f4backed Yes | 21c | 400$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -5.4wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x88de…1091backed No | 51c | 385.08$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.69 | 210 | 16.7%35 W · 175 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7865…4af9backed No | 55c | 356.94$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.62 | 125 | 25.6%32 W · 93 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed No | 54c | 355.61$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.84 | 281 | 33.1%93 W · 188 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd724…b805backed No | 77c | 280.9$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.61 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 26c | 249.39$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.92 | 346 | 30.1%104 W · 242 L | -21.8wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa533…acacbacked Yes | 40c | 249.14$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 114 | 58.8%67 W · 47 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9262…b123backed Yes | 41c | 244.04$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Yes | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 360 | 38.1%137 W · 223 L | -15.1wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -14%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cd2…f9a6backed Yes | 49c | 205.06$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.62 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23c3…bdf4backed Yes | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed Yes | 40c | 199.98$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.99 | 96 | 42.7%41 W · 55 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67f4…f91bbacked Yes | 43c | 170$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.1 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 19cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Yes | 43c | 125.58$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 431 | 45.2%195 W · 236 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e3…1962backed Yes | 43c | 116.28$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x865f…e88ebacked Yes | 42c | 105$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.49 | 1,045 | 29.3%306 W · 739 L | -10.8wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5422…6c3fbacked Yes | 44c | 101.97$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 52 | 55.8%29 W · 23 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4697…8b6ebacked No | 60c | 101.67$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.67 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…14a3backed No | 61c | 101.64$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.64 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1d…6a8bbacked Yes | 43c | 92.42$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa87b…968bbacked Yes | 21c | 71.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 76 | 42.1%32 W · 44 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc1…f9e9backed Yes | 43c | 69.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -3.3wins | -0.14per pick | 60cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x75a5…e1dfbacked Yes | 41c | 60.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3507…475abacked Yes | 43c | 58.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb8…450dbacked Yes | 45c | 55.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb230…4193backed No | 62c | 54.79$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 66 | 43.9%29 W · 37 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32ea…a857backed No | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 52 | 38.5%20 W · 32 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed Yes | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 403 | 55.3%223 W · 180 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98f6…79d2backed Yes | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +3.5wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | +47.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a30…fca1backed Yes | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cdd…3a5bbacked Yes | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4157…0e8bbacked Yes | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -3.0wins | -0.15per pick | 60cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6730…0bf2backed Yes | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89cb…574cbacked Yes | 46c | 43.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3991…b6c7backed Yes | 42c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -40%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb03…2276backed Yes | 43c | 34.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 76 | 55.3%42 W · 34 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c56…adf0backed No | 58c | 27.91$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x832c…2d3ebacked Yes | 43c | 27.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29f1…2978backed Yes | 45c | 27.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26ae…97b8backed No | 55c | 26.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.15 | 112 | 59.8%67 W · 45 L | +7.3wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 789 | 27.5%217 W · 572 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Montenegro win on 2025-10-09?this page
- Will Faroe Islands vs. Montenegro end in a draw?No won
- Will Faroe Islands win on 2025-10-09?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.