UFC · resolved market
O/U 1.5 Rounds
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe59daeb8a152a4b90fa3bf7a8e8dd10e41571ca4f737f727830e2b5086b430a6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,460
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,658
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,460 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb727…2a9dbacked Under | 50c | 30,398$15,159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,238.15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff80…9b4dbacked Over | 50c | 16,110$8,055 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,055 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 50c | 11,961$6,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,019.72 | 202 | 48.5%98 W · 104 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked Over | 50c | 1,400$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 83 | 53%44 W · 39 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x807f…9615backed Under | 47c | 696$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368.88 | 97 | 47.4%46 W · 51 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3989…27b1backed Over | 53c | 600$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318 | 130 | 41.5%54 W · 76 L | -9.1wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc97d…89d7backed Over | 54c | 313.04$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.04 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x920a…29e0backed Over | 52c | 290.35$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1b…65d7backed Under | 46c | 213.04$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.04 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d9…df36backed Under | 53c | 200$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95 | 146 | 49.3%72 W · 74 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c32…7156backed Over | 51c | 196$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.96 | 83 | 61.4%51 W · 32 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x59e3…848abacked Over | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e00…5a84backed Under | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +119.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1262…056fbacked Over | 53c | 96$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.88 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 48c | 92.31$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 170 | 50.6%86 W · 84 L | +9.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfcd5…ecbebacked Over | 55c | 49.15$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.03 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- O/U 1.5 Roundsthis page
- Fight to Go the Distance?No won
- O/U 0.5 RoundsUnder won
- UFC Fight Night: Kennedy Nzechukwu vs. Shamil Gaziev (Heavyweight, Main Card)Shamil Gaziev won
- Will Kennedy Nzechukwu win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will Shamil Gaziev win by KO or TKO?Yes won
- Will the fight be won by submission?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.