Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on May 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe5a65284179b5294e4b900d7d89d99e61e2a8b2b305b4eeb51b4bceaba62d933
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,389
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,103
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,389 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x18ec…8b90backed No | 2c | 600$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 65c | 376.48$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.48 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 65c | 256.28$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.31 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 35c | 207.76$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.05 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 28c | 130.49$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.11 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 33c | 110.45$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.99 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 38c | 104.8$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 77c | 98$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.85 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbea2…2d33backed No | 65c | 95.8$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.1 | 65 | 61.5%40 W · 25 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 55c | 80.87$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.52 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 63c | 80.6$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.52 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a8…9f68backed Yes | 36c | 78.87$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.86 | 346 | 33.8%117 W · 229 L | +17.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 73c | 74.41$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.48 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 68c | 70$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.52 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1de…aadfbacked No | 72c | 69.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 63 | 76.2%48 W · 15 L | +7.8wins | +0.12per pick | 64cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xebda…75a9backed Yes | 29c | 68$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.28 | 217 | 22.6%49 W · 168 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 31c | 67.38$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a04…c853backed Yes | 37c | 63.48$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.05 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 27c | 63$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.75 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 76c | 60$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.3 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 35c | 49.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.49 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e96…b306backed Yes | 77c | 47.27$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.98 | 201 | 44.8%90 W · 111 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…3604backed Yes | 43c | 41.82$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.86 | 515 | 53.6%276 W · 239 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f12…9424backed Yes | 36c | 41.2$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.2 | 175 | 53.7%94 W · 81 L | +9.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 40c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 33c | 39.72$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.72 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 55c | 38.37$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.01 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2108…2e40backed Yes | 36c | 36$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.04 | 59 | 39%23 W · 36 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No | 65c | 35.86$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.31 | 572 | 64.5%369 W · 203 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 60c | 33.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 65c | 33$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.45 | 435 | 63.9%278 W · 157 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed Yes | 69c | 32$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.03 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 49c | 30.64$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.64 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 70c | 28.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.87 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 53c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11fc…8262backed No | 60c | 24.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 379 | 42.2%160 W · 219 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb47b…3b53backed No | 58c | 23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 68cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…e042backed No | 70c | 22.36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 445 | 53.3%237 W · 208 L | -21.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x81ab…5f31backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 289 | 46.4%134 W · 155 L | -14.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 62c | 18.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 60c | 17.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x823a…61abbacked No | 68c | 17.31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 78 | 69.2%54 W · 24 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 67c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on May 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on May 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on May 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on May 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on May 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on May 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.