Tennis · resolved market
Kigali 2: Maik Steiner vs Jay Clarke
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe5b0d5146f5e1145fe190c96a73bad9d412b5121c38e3963e7a71ef9b4c72899
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Jay Clarkeof Maik Steiner, Jay Clarke
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,749
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,749 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Maik Steiner | 28c | 2,959$824 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$823.79 | 2,746 | 30.8%846 W · 1,900 L | -67.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Jay Clarke | 66c | 2,656$1,743 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$912.87 | 2,865 | 44.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d3…c2f0backed Jay Clarke | 77c | 2,080$1,602 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$478.19 | 335 | 56.7%190 W · 145 L | -27.7wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9e38…1b52backed Maik Steiner | 18c | 919.99$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.6 | 619 | 24.4%151 W · 468 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4042…0bdabacked Maik Steiner | 35c | 697.14$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244 | 982 | 40.1%394 W · 588 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a73…a9c8backed Jay Clarke | 53c | 526.03$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.83 | 625 | 34.4%215 W · 410 L | -20.1wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecfa…3c6fbacked Jay Clarke | 55c | 500$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225 | 469 | 32%150 W · 319 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde9f…d43cbacked Maik Steiner | 45c | 452.71$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.84 | 6,599 | 50.7%3,343 W · 3,256 L | +259.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd88a…1eefbacked Maik Steiner | 16c | 421.54$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.86 | 544 | 34.2%186 W · 358 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9db1…d726backed Maik Steiner | 29c | 346.11$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 118 | 32.2%38 W · 80 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b7f…e826backed Jay Clarke | 72c | 306.08$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.08 | 693 | 50.5%350 W · 343 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda22…6d2abacked Maik Steiner | 34c | 296.79$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 353 | 44.8%158 W · 195 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd038…8f51backed Jay Clarke | 68c | 266.49$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.99 | 4,288 | 40.5%1,737 W · 2,551 L | -139.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x588b…8593backed Maik Steiner | 44c | 222.43$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.87 | 1,107 | 43.5%481 W · 626 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Maik Steiner | 29c | 216.28$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.26 | 3,072 | 44.9%1,378 W · 1,694 L | -30.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -23%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Jay Clarke | 77c | 216.12$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.82 | 1,410 | 38.4%542 W · 868 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -25%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Maik Steiner | 14c | 214.78$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 44 | 22.7%10 W · 34 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…8464backed Maik Steiner | 21c | 204.83$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 721 | 32%231 W · 490 L | -17.8wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3d…e7ebbacked Jay Clarke | 53c | 181.39$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.89 | 1,130 | 27.9%315 W · 815 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7cb6…96d1backed Maik Steiner | 34c | 140.76$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 465 | 65.6%305 W · 160 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Maik Steiner | 14c | 139.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 278 | 36.3%101 W · 177 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58e4…73f9backed Maik Steiner | 19c | 131.76$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 307 | 41.7%128 W · 179 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe496…4d8bbacked Maik Steiner | 16c | 126.45$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.76 | 182 | 33.5%61 W · 121 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Maik Steiner | 19c | 121.19$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.01 | 1,973 | 46.3%914 W · 1,059 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc8…f45bbacked Maik Steiner | 21c | 119.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 283 | 22.3%63 W · 220 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6be…b977backed Maik Steiner | 49c | 116.71$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.84 | 1,768 | 43.2%764 W · 1,004 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Maik Steiner | 31c | 111.27$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.68 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Maik Steiner | 40c | 107.2$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.42 | 6,786 | 48.8%3,310 W · 3,476 L | +56.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Jay Clarke | 77c | 104.73$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.17 | 2,761 | 53.9%1,487 W · 1,274 L | +73.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed Maik Steiner | 24c | 84.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,266 | 34.2%433 W · 833 L | -43.2wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb3…9dfdbacked Maik Steiner | 30c | 81.49$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.45 | 123 | 60.2%74 W · 49 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Maik Steiner | 23c | 61.11$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 7,816 | 50.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L | +95.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Maik Steiner | 23c | 60.89$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 6,439 | 54.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L | +285.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8027…cf81backed Maik Steiner | 26c | 57.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 308 | 53.6%165 W · 143 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70ac…0c7dbacked Jay Clarke | 69c | 57.21$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.72 | 2,537 | 53.6%1,361 W · 1,176 L | +61.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Maik Steiner | 36c | 56.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.39 | 572 | 52.3%299 W · 273 L | +17.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x750d…566bbacked Jay Clarke | 63c | 53$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.66 | 163 | 56.4%92 W · 71 L | +8.7wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed Maik Steiner | 30c | 50.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,258 | 50%629 W · 629 L | -4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec25…dec6backed Jay Clarke | 76c | 43.54$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.12per pick | 78cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x613f…6463backed Jay Clarke | 62c | 33.97$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.91 | 59 | 37.3%22 W · 37 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc11d…421bbacked Jay Clarke | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.51 | 109 | 67%73 W · 36 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf10e…4c13backed Jay Clarke | 69c | 21.92$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.7 | 53 | 79.2%42 W · 11 L | +8.0wins | +0.15per pick | 64cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x31e5…e2a2backed Jay Clarke | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 197 | 62.9%124 W · 73 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d65…2d2bbacked Jay Clarke | 67c | 17.91$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.91 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed Jay Clarke | 65c | 16.32$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.77 | 430 | 58.6%252 W · 178 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd77…ef21backed Jay Clarke | 69c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.02 | 652 | 64.1%418 W · 234 L | +21.6wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…d603backed Jay Clarke | 67c | 14.93$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.93 | 324 | 50.9%165 W · 159 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.