Serie A · resolved market
Parma Calcio 1913 vs. ACF Fiorentina: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe5d28e7ed5e6dada0ea3869e2cbf23776cbf4f6f48b9c7d1b4b296c1d621e038
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,138
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,795
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,138 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 21c | 10,665$2,202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,202.47 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5f…4b52backed Under | 78c | 9,200$7,176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,023.91 | 20 | 90%18 W · 2 L | +2.6wins | +0.13per pick | 77cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb8…a6fabacked Under | 79c | 1,875$1,481 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$393.68 | 26 | 88.5%23 W · 3 L | +3.8wins | +0.15per pick | 74cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 19c | 1,206$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.72 | 969 | 42.3%410 W · 559 L | -13.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 22c | 800.08$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.02 | 1,981 | 39.8%788 W · 1,193 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8942…1e76backed Under | 76c | 657.89$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.89 | 79 | 54.4%43 W · 36 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Under | 74c | 444$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.44 | 99 | 58.6%58 W · 41 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed Under | 75c | 300$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 314 | 41.4%130 W · 184 L | -11.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7f6…5ac8backed Over | 25c | 260$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 57 | 40.4%23 W · 34 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb82d…5d1ebacked Under | 77c | 138$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.74 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x102f…9b6ebacked Under | 77c | 135$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.05 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28a2…91a4backed Under | 77c | 125$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.75 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f9…5526backed Under | 77c | 122$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.06 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +4.0wins | +0.23per pick | 53cpaid | +46%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9061…9510backed Under | 77c | 120$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27ed…57ebbacked Under | 77c | 116$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.68 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1393…8392backed Under | 77c | 115$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.45 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c2a…37f4backed Over | 23c | 104.14$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.41 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55f5…01b0backed Under | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 64cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab5f…4175backed Over | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fed…0d78backed Under | 77c | 71$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.33 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x080f…c226backed Over | 23c | 62$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 55cpaid | -39%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb59a…e730backed Over | 23c | 59$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.57 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.29per pick | 42cpaid | -80.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2061…1ed1backed Over | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4130…a35bbacked Under | 77c | 39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.97 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7308…2b0abacked Under | 75c | 28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 76cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Parma Calcio 1913 vs. ACF Fiorentina: O/U 3.5this page
- Parma Calcio 1913 vs. ACF Fiorentina: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Parma Calcio 1913 vs. ACF Fiorentina: O/U 1.5Under won
- Parma Calcio 1913 vs. ACF Fiorentina: O/U 2.5Under won
- Parma Calcio 1913 vs. ACF Fiorentina: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: ACF Fiorentina (-1.5)Parma Calcio 1913 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.