Tennis · resolved market
ITF W15 Tianjin 3 Women: Natsuki Yoshimoto vs Eva Marie Desvignes
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe5d8537b0a1fe454c7fecb7f59d59e2e6d0e505e37fca8c83b6ba8ae5973865a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Eva Marie Desvignesof Natsuki Yoshimoto, Eva Marie Desvignes
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,819
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,800
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,819 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Natsuki Yoshimoto | 25c | 4,374$1,094 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,094.22 | 11,666 | 43.4%5,059 W · 6,607 L | +22.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7462…3ac3backed Eva Marie Desvignes | 72c | 2,934$2,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$833.5 | 1,723 | 50.1%863 W · 860 L | +29.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Eva Marie Desvignes | 70c | 172.69$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.81 | 7,968 | 50.7%4,038 W · 3,930 L | +92.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5513…de2abacked Eva Marie Desvignes | 28c | 166.98$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.47 | 792 | 38.3%303 W · 489 L | -15.8wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47f6…b051backed Natsuki Yoshimoto | 40c | 149.98$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.99 | 426 | 43.9%187 W · 239 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b24…11efbacked Eva Marie Desvignes | 59c | 139.99$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.4 | 643 | 65.9%424 W · 219 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b36ebacked Natsuki Yoshimoto | 31c | 126.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.7 | 520 | 46.7%243 W · 277 L | -13.9wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9030…60e4backed Natsuki Yoshimoto | 27c | 112.09$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.85 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13f7…85d5backed Natsuki Yoshimoto | 75c | 92.68$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.79 | 1,314 | 39%512 W · 802 L | -23.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08c8…016abacked Natsuki Yoshimoto | 69c | 92$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.48 | 375 | 58.1%218 W · 157 L | -17.8wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e69…553abacked Eva Marie Desvignes | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.75 | 962 | 55.8%537 W · 425 L | +21.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ea…42e8backed Eva Marie Desvignes | 28c | 79.58$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.37 | 904 | 59.5%538 W · 366 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9455…7defbacked Eva Marie Desvignes | 70c | 71.43$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 1,000 | 49.8%498 W · 502 L | +19.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bcd…c00fbacked Eva Marie Desvignes | 70c | 71.43$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 160 | 54.4%87 W · 73 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x301f…e84cbacked Natsuki Yoshimoto | 71c | 69.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 309 | 69.6%215 W · 94 L | +11.5wins | +0.04per pick | 66cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88a9…e618backed Eva Marie Desvignes | 59c | 50.85$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.85 | 967 | 55%532 W · 435 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b0…d8dbbacked Eva Marie Desvignes | 59c | 50.85$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.85 | 533 | 56.7%302 W · 231 L | +15.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x329d…5a92backed Natsuki Yoshimoto | 73c | 45.92$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.52 | 236 | 40.7%96 W · 140 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Eva Marie Desvignes | 75c | 33.3$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.26 | 1,878 | 53.2%1,000 W · 878 L | +30.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf236…2e36backed Eva Marie Desvignes | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.45 | 91 | 37.4%34 W · 57 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13b2…5486backed Natsuki Yoshimoto | 71c | 28.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 89 | 77.5%69 W · 20 L | +7.9wins | +0.09per pick | 69cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x87f7…8f45backed Eva Marie Desvignes | 63c | 25.75$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.57 | 489 | 47.4%232 W · 257 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d10…780bbacked Eva Marie Desvignes | 61c | 24.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 1,036 | 54.2%562 W · 474 L | +38.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc40…6ae3backed Natsuki Yoshimoto | 73c | 20.65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 64 | 50%32 W · 32 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d10…b3d0backed Natsuki Yoshimoto | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 826 | 59.3%490 W · 336 L | +3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Natsuki Yoshimoto | 75c | 17.26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 1,745 | 48.1%840 W · 905 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7523…68a0backed Natsuki Yoshimoto | 70c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 115 | 57.4%66 W · 49 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.