Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on March 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe5de8aad53c2580d4fcca8371b7ccafbb8d6cd32fae2cccdb4a4eee4cef8679a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,348
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,803
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,348 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x386f…db83backed No | 1c | 1,155$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc82c…c866backed No | 7c | 889.09$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.36 | 76 | 39.5%30 W · 46 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked No | 22c | 818.48$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.07 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb84b…95b1backed No | 8c | 745.43$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.6 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 49c | 714.54$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.47 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf21b…5121backed No | 63c | 593.42$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375.68 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 67cpaid | -13%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd75c…fd4ebacked Yes | 50c | 397.49$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.91 | 52 | 32.7%17 W · 35 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 73c | 384.43$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.98 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 62c | 356.56$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.04 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 56c | 335.32$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.87 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked No | 17c | 302.5$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.93 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 26c | 250.78$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.3 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 21c | 247.67$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.73 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8907…a996backed No | 73c | 224.39$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.56 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2002…996bbacked Yes | 45c | 216.04$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.53 | 65 | 78.5%51 W · 14 L | +6.9wins | +0.11per pick | 68cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5e…f21dbacked Yes | 50c | 190.05$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.21 | 83 | 39.8%33 W · 50 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 69c | 187.27$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.03 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 32c | 184.3$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.51 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked No | 14c | 156.1$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.56 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 153.28$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.98 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 26c | 139.91$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.73 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17dd…056abacked No | 16c | 139.44$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.84 | 69 | 13%9 W · 60 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 45c | 122.79$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.83 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9348…8cfbbacked No | 17c | 104.76$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.81 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…57a7backed No | 76c | 104.72$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.84 | 451 | 27.1%122 W · 329 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64c0…b4b9backed Yes | 17c | 101.6$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.61 | 241 | 9.5%23 W · 218 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 30c | 99.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.16 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ef…8b9cbacked Yes | 21c | 94.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.34 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dcf…c0f2backed Yes | 17c | 93.2$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.82 | 167 | 9%15 W · 152 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 77c | 92.26$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.4 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f3c…758dbacked Yes | 25c | 81.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.34 | 113 | 37.2%42 W · 71 L | +8.1wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 77c | 73.44$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.55 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb5…57eabacked No | 76c | 71.44$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.24 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5692…7236backed Yes | 21c | 69.26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.89 | 37 | 13.5%5 W · 32 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6526…9c80backed Yes | 29c | 60.7$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.02 | 123 | 37.4%46 W · 77 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3b…957bbacked No | 35c | 60.09$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.28 | 370 | 56.5%209 W · 161 L | +31.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb532…8577backed No | 18c | 57.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 191 | 33.5%64 W · 127 L | +10.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1385…e96abacked No | 18c | 57.53$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 137 | 32.1%44 W · 93 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 48c | 56.63$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.57 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 19c | 53$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.93 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd08…1831backed Yes | 23c | 47.82$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.82 | 54 | 33.3%18 W · 36 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6400…331abacked No | 74c | 43.14$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.01 | 424 | 69.1%293 W · 131 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2691…70e1backed No | 74c | 41.57$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.78 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 69cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9fd…1902backed No | 75c | 40.44$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.18 | 112 | 57.1%64 W · 48 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 38c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.8 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f12…7057backed No | 71c | 37.49$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.52 | 192 | 59.9%115 W · 77 L | -9.3wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 44c | 34.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcdfb…f641backed No | 76c | 25.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 91 | 64.8%59 W · 32 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 71cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…652abacked Yes | 48c | 23.1$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.93 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +3.6wins | +0.10per pick | 41cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 74c | 21.3$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b05…d7a7backed No | 72c | 19.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.38 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9907…ca66backed No | 73c | 18.52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x192a…b0a6backed No | 74c | 18.29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 201 | 50.7%102 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a99…1838backed No | 68c | 15.87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 97 | 70.1%68 W · 29 L | -5.0wins | -0.05per pick | 75cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on March 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 76°F or higher on March 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on March 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on March 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on March 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on March 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.