La Liga · resolved market
Real Racing Club vs. UD Almería: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe60c82b5ad289f65cdeef870feca66db278fd013f516dba6dc8c3118e8ae33cb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,039
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,622
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,039 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 54c | 1,422$765 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$657.07 | 3,444 | 43%1,482 W · 1,962 L | +31.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 51c | 1,402$715 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$715.14 | 923 | 45.5%420 W · 503 L | -30.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74d0…de45backed Under | 39c | 1,299$506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$505.97 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 55c | 848.08$466 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$382.38 | 4,729 | 47.1%2,225 W · 2,504 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 45c | 595.87$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.07 | 1,651 | 43.9%724 W · 927 L | -21.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…8ab1backed Under | 80c | 247$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.6 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 74cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdf4…40fabacked Over | 62c | 236.42$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.84 | 68 | 52.9%36 W · 32 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 18c | 232$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.47 | 163 | 63.8%104 W · 59 L | +32.3wins | +0.20per pick | 44cpaid | +66.9%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xb17e…22bebacked Over | 58c | 224.66$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.57 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1650…42f6backed Under | 53c | 194.36$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.01 | 93 | 36.6%34 W · 59 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1da…0370backed Under | 79c | 172.82$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.93 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -5.3wins | -0.31per pick | 61cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x1513…831abacked Under | 38c | 163.43$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.82 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f72…2fbfbacked Over | 62c | 157.61$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.89 | 116 | 51.7%60 W · 56 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 25c | 143.27$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.39 | 1,497 | 38.6%578 W · 919 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 53c | 110.8$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.86 | 123 | 69.9%86 W · 37 L | +29.7wins | +0.24per pick | 46cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 72+0.20 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Under | 23c | 89.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 443 | 24.2%107 W · 336 L | -49.5wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Over | 63c | 89.2$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.07 | 403 | 57.1%230 W · 173 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Over | 33c | 75.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.36 | 744 | 57.5%428 W · 316 L | +22.4wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 76c | 53.04$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.44 | 1,559 | 51.6%804 W · 755 L | -9.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Over | 55c | 52.85$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.76 | 83 | 54.2%45 W · 38 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x880b…a2d6backed Over | 46c | 44.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.04 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +5.5wins | +0.37per pick | 43cpaid | +108.7%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Over | 54c | 43.9$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.13 | 283 | 57.2%162 W · 121 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Over | 54c | 43.9$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.13 | 234 | 56.4%132 W · 102 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9996…6810backed Over | 36c | 41.4$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +132.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad81…3ffebacked Over | 66c | 39.18$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Over | 57c | 38.58$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.68 | 357 | 59.4%212 W · 145 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa1c…0144backed Under | 63c | 31.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.56 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Over | 63c | 29.71$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.02 | 203 | 60.1%122 W · 81 L | +8.5wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed Over | 63c | 29.46$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.76 | 227 | 58.1%132 W · 95 L | +9.3wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xade2…8757backed Over | 63c | 29.46$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.76 | 91 | 64.8%59 W · 32 L | +7.9wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x659f…04e4backed Over | 49c | 21.46$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Over | 50c | 21.22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.62 | 195 | 55.9%109 W · 86 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bb…0fe1backed Over | 50c | 21.21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.61 | 224 | 56.3%126 W · 98 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Over | 62c | 19.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.69 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…04bebacked Over | 66c | 17.11$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.82 | 109 | 57.8%63 W · 46 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Real Racing Club vs. UD Almería: O/U 4.5this page
- Real Racing Club vs. UD Almería: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Real Racing Club vs. UD Almería: O/U 1.5Over won
- Real Racing Club vs. UD Almería: O/U 2.5Over won
- Real Racing Club vs. UD Almería: O/U 3.5Over won
- Spread: Real Racing Club (-1.5)Real Racing Club won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.