Other European Leagues · resolved market
Will FC Arouca vs. Estoril Praia end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe61d6709af20fee48c62fd69662818ee11bc8ed2b6238be53b30cfa822dcebb7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,207
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,674
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,207 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5db5…1a50backed Yes | 24c | 10,017$2,386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,385.72 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 78c | 6,909$5,368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,541.26 | 2,130 | 45.8%975 W · 1,155 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 78c | 4,719$3,665 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,053.5 | 5,604 | 42%2,356 W · 3,248 L | +75.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 22c | 1,081$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.19 | 136 | 26.5%36 W · 100 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 75c | 1,062$798 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.48 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 78c | 785.89$613 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.74 | 2,179 | 48%1,046 W · 1,133 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 36c | 554.61$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.56 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 33cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed61…9aa3backed No | 63c | 488.9$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.89 | 37 | 73%27 W · 10 L | +8.4wins | +0.23per pick | 50cpaid | +73.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x1968…8c66backed Yes | 17c | 461.13$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.39 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe02…5fb3backed Yes | 17c | 453$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.96 | 69 | 62.3%43 W · 26 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…ac0cbacked Yes | 17c | 451.8$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.81 | 105 | 60%63 W · 42 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Yes | 27c | 421.89$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.61 | 1,098 | 50.5%554 W · 544 L | -36.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd851…4616backed Yes | 26c | 385.76$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.3 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +4.7wins | +0.14per pick | 27cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc686…5a55backed Yes | 20c | 348.33$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.49 | 582 | 29.2%170 W · 412 L | -19.5wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe521…9caebacked Yes | 22c | 306.98$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.39 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb0b…3790backed Yes | 10c | 223.89$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.67 | 77 | 31.2%24 W · 53 L | +10.1wins | +0.13per pick | 18cpaid | +229.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 20c | 175.31$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.65 | 940 | 43.7%411 W · 529 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked No | 72c | 144.43$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.44 | 69 | 37.7%26 W · 43 L | -6.5wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbe9c…1700backed Yes | 17c | 135.46$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.03 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -40%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 74c | 131.76$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.3 | 986 | 53.2%525 W · 461 L | +22.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab27…0c65backed Yes | 20c | 117.1$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb881…20a1backed Yes | 39c | 113.63$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.32 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07b9…3efebacked No | 70c | 70.58$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.49 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e41…b875backed Yes | 28c | 68.34$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.14 | 104 | 61.5%64 W · 40 L | +7.7wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x981b…b8eabacked Yes | 28c | 68.34$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.14 | 124 | 43.5%54 W · 70 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4411…20bfbacked No | 74c | 66.57$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.36 | 49 | 65.3%32 W · 17 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 79c | 61.46$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.69 | 641 | 43.4%278 W · 363 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f2…2512backed Yes | 27c | 61.24$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.53 | 73 | 32.9%24 W · 49 L | -10.8wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Yes | 27c | 60.26$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 583 | 20.1%117 W · 466 L | -37.7wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4d2b…5271backed No | 74c | 59.05$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.59 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 66cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8632…4696backed No | 73c | 53.89$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.55 | 79 | 57%45 W · 34 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfce1…4f4cbacked No | 74c | 53.6$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.19 | 69 | 58%40 W · 29 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce06…c99dbacked No | 74c | 47.69$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.21 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee7…4c1abacked No | 74c | 47.19$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.19 | 54 | 59.3%32 W · 22 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 73c | 46.63$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.59 | 2,334 | 46.8%1,093 W · 1,241 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0115…ac79backed No | 65c | 40.4$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.14 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a53…074abacked No | 74c | 37.52$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.65 | 33 | 63.6%21 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c8a…02acbacked No | 75c | 36.04$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.07 | 46 | 69.6%32 W · 14 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 74c | 36$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.32 | 673 | 48.1%324 W · 349 L | -22.1wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd208…cbcdbacked No | 74c | 33.4$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.54 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b7…93ebbacked No | 73c | 32.73$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.86 | 67 | 59.7%40 W · 27 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad78…678cbacked No | 77c | 32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.36 | 19 | 78.9%15 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 74cpaid | +37%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91f0…c57abacked No | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 91 | 53.8%49 W · 42 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8b9…46e4backed No | 76c | 29.29$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.93 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0bec…c707backed No | 71c | 25.3$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.27 | 41 | 70.7%29 W · 12 L | +3.7wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked No | 80c | 25.24$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.05 | 191 | 56.5%108 W · 83 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22e8…8435backed No | 73c | 24.15$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.58 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…44e1backed No | 74c | 21.91$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 103 | 60.2%62 W · 41 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85b8…9d57backed No | 74c | 21.26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.48 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 62cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea65…d27dbacked No | 72c | 19.67$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.48 | 72 | 76.4%55 W · 17 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed No | 72c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 869 | 60.4%525 W · 344 L | +91.3wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed No | 78c | 17.76$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.91 | 1,467 | 48%704 W · 763 L | +3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 72c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.76 | 1,143 | 53.2%608 W · 535 L | +44.9wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x976e…8453backed No | 78c | 15.79$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.47 | 52 | 67.3%35 W · 17 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb38…f78dbacked No | 76c | 13.51$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.24 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7926…4ae5backed No | 76c | 13.51$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed No | 76c | 13.45$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.2 | 260 | 60.8%158 W · 102 L | +9.7wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed No | 76c | 13.45$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.2 | 209 | 53.1%111 W · 98 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC Arouca vs. Estoril Praia end in a draw?this page
- Will Estoril Praia win on 2026-04-06?No won
- Will FC Arouca win on 2026-04-06?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.