Other European Leagues · resolved market
Will FC Arouca win on 2026-04-06?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x62febcdba9a2bedd40285b0bc256a9085079952b4a7675c1e03ff9fe91b89b04
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,148
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,972
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,148 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5db5…1a50backed Yes | 21c | 4,602$952 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,649.64 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 38c | 2,934$1,119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,118.72 | 5,604 | 42%2,356 W · 3,248 L | +75.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6da6…7d01backed Yes | 40c | 2,410$964 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,446 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.8wins | +0.31per pick | 47cpaid | +62.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed No | 2c | 1,106$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.54 | 511 | 40.9%209 W · 302 L | -12.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 22c | 924.99$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.13 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58f4…764ebacked No | 22c | 867.31$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.64 | 84 | 32.1%27 W · 57 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 40c | 761.3$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$457.85 | 2,334 | 46.8%1,093 W · 1,241 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 67c | 739.86$494 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.47 | 2,130 | 45.8%975 W · 1,155 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb881…20a1backed Yes | 71c | 691.97$491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.67 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 39c | 514.59$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.72 | 1,143 | 53.2%608 W · 535 L | +44.9wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 34c | 500$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 33cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe75e…4b67backed No | 60c | 500$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 85 | 54.1%46 W · 39 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3388…61d7backed No | 60c | 500$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 140 | 50%70 W · 70 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x288a…0048backed No | 60c | 500$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 94 | 57.4%54 W · 40 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Yes | 70c | 490.85$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.41 | 1,098 | 50.5%554 W · 544 L | -36.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…aa5abacked No | 66c | 489.8$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.27 | 191 | 65.4%125 W · 66 L | +18.3wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +29%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Yes | 39c | 482.05$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.05 | 1,113 | 51%568 W · 545 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed61…9aa3backed Yes | 14c | 475.1$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408.59 | 37 | 73%27 W · 10 L | +8.4wins | +0.23per pick | 50cpaid | +73.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…ac0cbacked No | 18c | 472.76$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.91 | 105 | 60%63 W · 42 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked No | 18c | 466.67$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.79 | 322 | 59.3%191 W · 131 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26dd…0249backed No | 18c | 466.52$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.79 | 113 | 54.9%62 W · 51 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe02…5fb3backed No | 18c | 461.92$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.05 | 69 | 62.3%43 W · 26 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed No | 18c | 461.66$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.05 | 306 | 56.2%172 W · 134 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6c…e09cbacked No | 18c | 461.4$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.05 | 167 | 56.3%94 W · 73 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed No | 18c | 456.61$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.96 | 260 | 60.8%158 W · 102 L | +9.7wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ba…e793backed Yes | 13c | 452.96$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392.16 | 142 | 62.7%89 W · 53 L | +15.1wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3f6a…a7bfbacked No | 60c | 450$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 107 | 53.3%57 W · 50 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x447d…bd4abacked No | 30c | 319.33$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.8 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x606f…b043backed No | 60c | 300$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 66 | 51.5%34 W · 32 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f8b…9e2dbacked No | 60c | 300$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 71 | 52.1%37 W · 34 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfce1…4f4cbacked No | 4c | 293.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 69 | 58%40 W · 29 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e0…041bbacked No | 60c | 250$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 104 | 58.7%61 W · 43 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa1…6edbbacked No | 60c | 250$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 92 | 56.5%52 W · 40 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d61…27e3backed No | 6c | 212.84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.72 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 6cpaid | +223.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e41…b875backed Yes | 68c | 200.61$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.25 | 104 | 61.5%64 W · 40 L | +7.7wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed No | 18c | 180.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.03 | 583 | 20.1%117 W · 466 L | -37.7wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Yes | 39c | 174$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.14 | 127 | 46.5%59 W · 68 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f86…b83dbacked Yes | 80c | 166.08$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.22 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 77cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bab…50aabacked No | 64c | 164.03$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.98 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | -4.8wins | -0.11per pick | 65cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8acc…cc29backed No | 60c | 150$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 61 | 54.1%33 W · 28 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88aa…bbb5backed Yes | 67c | 146.3$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.28 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +63.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdc7…7780backed No | 20c | 143$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe9c…1700backed No | 18c | 132.06$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.77 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -40%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 76c | 126.38$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.18 | 2,179 | 48%1,046 W · 1,133 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c01…f06cbacked Yes | 80c | 123.5$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.7 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 69cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 62c | 119.5$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.2 | 986 | 53.2%525 W · 461 L | +22.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 56c | 99.03$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.95 | 673 | 48.1%324 W · 349 L | -22.1wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2270…ca8cbacked Yes | 73c | 94.82$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 44cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8632…4696backed Yes | 39c | 80.71$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.23 | 79 | 57%45 W · 34 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Yes | 39c | 77$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.97 | 2,543 | 52.4%1,333 W · 1,210 L | +18.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72ee…a848backed No | 60c | 60$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.1 | 167 | 50.9%85 W · 82 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91f0…c57abacked No | 61c | 59.32$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.18 | 91 | 53.8%49 W · 42 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b6a…8aa7backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe735…4198backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5660…1707backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x666b…d240backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0577…02ccbacked No | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0056…a7f7backed Yes | 39c | 48.32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.48 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1513…831abacked Yes | 80c | 48.17$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.63 | 52 | 42.3%22 W · 30 L | -7.0wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -32%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xffbb…7a04backed Yes | 52c | 46.9$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.48 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Yes | 38c | 33.55$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x976e…8453backed No | 63c | 31.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.55 | 52 | 67.3%35 W · 17 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 62c | 31.07$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.26 | 1,222 | 51%623 W · 599 L | -10.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9f…b23bbacked No | 60c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 111 | 59.5%66 W · 45 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84a9…dbc4backed Yes | 46c | 28.08$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +119.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3392…0662backed No | 47c | 26.11$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -3.1wins | -0.39per pick | 52cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed No | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 142 | 57.7%82 W · 60 L | +6.6wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4a…8e5dbacked No | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 72 | 58.3%42 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf512…5198backed No | 69c | 21.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 78 | 59%46 W · 32 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e4…d6b2backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 82 | 56.1%46 W · 36 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 126 | 55.6%70 W · 56 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83f5…0f32backed Yes | 77c | 19.22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.42 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Yes | 77c | 14.79$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.4 | 1,107 | 47.7%528 W · 579 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Yes | 77c | 14.79$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.4 | 1,467 | 48%704 W · 763 L | +3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Yes | 77c | 14.79$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.4 | 1,711 | 48.3%827 W · 884 L | -18.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC Arouca win on 2026-04-06?this page
- Will Estoril Praia win on 2026-04-06?No won
- Will FC Arouca vs. Estoril Praia end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.