MLB · resolved market
Houston Astros vs. St. Louis Cardinals
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe6261ad2c17a9a4d6dece2601007e448482c1b09f17c41a91c68608f8d685f8d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Houston Astrosof Houston Astros, St. Louis Cardinals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,437
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,810
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,437 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfaa2…93ccbacked Houston Astros | 51c | 1,977$1,002 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$975.15 | 248 | 44%109 W · 139 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x994e…9cf5backed St. Louis Cardinals | 44c | 1,718$756 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$756.13 | 211 | 47.9%101 W · 110 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed St. Louis Cardinals | 49c | 1,619$796 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$795.84 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 46c | 1,479$681 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$680.52 | 981 | 49.8%489 W · 492 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…dbbcbacked Houston Astros | 56c | 1,285$720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$565.4 | 245 | 53.5%131 W · 114 L | +10.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Houston Astros | 55c | 1,123$618 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$505.51 | 1,591 | 50.3%801 W · 790 L | +68.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed St. Louis Cardinals | 46c | 805.34$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.82 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac0d…0ed4backed Houston Astros | 56c | 446.82$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.82 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 45c | 424.37$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.97 | 733 | 52.4%384 W · 349 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Houston Astros | 54c | 424$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.04 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd55c…34febacked Houston Astros | 54c | 419.4$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.92 | 376 | 49.5%186 W · 190 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58db…ea03backed Houston Astros | 42c | 329$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.82 | 123 | 47.2%58 W · 65 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Houston Astros | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 46c | 129.96$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.08 | 513 | 34.5%177 W · 336 L | -31.2wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a0…88eebacked Houston Astros | 54c | 94$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.24 | 283 | 48.8%138 W · 145 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Houston Astros | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…52e1backed Houston Astros | 56c | 88.25$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.83 | 809 | 55.5%449 W · 360 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0643…d46bbacked Houston Astros | 55c | 38.18$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.18 | 405 | 57.8%234 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d16…8444backed Houston Astros | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 35 | 68.6%24 W · 11 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e42…9003backed St. Louis Cardinals | 52c | 34.84$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.06 | 432 | 50.7%219 W · 213 L | +10.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x235a…2e57backed St. Louis Cardinals | 44c | 34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 125 | 48%60 W · 65 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf391…73c3backed Houston Astros | 55c | 21.82$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.82 | 295 | 52.2%154 W · 141 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02c7…3df7backed Houston Astros | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 551 | 52.5%289 W · 262 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cbe…12bcbacked Houston Astros | 54c | 19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.74 | 1,132 | 48.9%553 W · 579 L | -16.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.