TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Milan be 22°C on April 9?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$32,508
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$35,127

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,508 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 84 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5730…891ebacked No1c1,274$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.781020%2 W · 8 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick11cpaid-24.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3b5e…4033backed Yes32c1,258$401 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$857.012119%4 W · 17 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-62.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No42c711.62$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.9712,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes30c629.78$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$443.995,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes45c529$236 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$292.7151321.2%109 W · 404 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e3e…d953backed No75c471.85$353 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$353.356369.8%44 W · 19 L+4.0wins+0.06per pick63cpaid+1.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x23d8…f6b9backed No77c443.76$341 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$340.9425175.7%190 W · 61 L+24.7wins+0.10per pick66cpaid+14%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xfb14…0da7backed Yes10c420.62$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$380.2924921.3%53 W · 196 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick20cpaid-22.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1348…7037backed No44c407.53$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.5617665.9%116 W · 60 L+12.7wins+0.07per pick59cpaid+18.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2099…3024backed Yes19c372.79$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$301.5433620.2%68 W · 268 L+24.9wins+0.07per pick13cpaid+8.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc11e…75c8backed Yes17c358.92$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$298.398623.3%20 W · 66 L+4.2wins+0.05per pick18cpaid+47.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbc80…56a7backed No4c352.67$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.5416412.2%20 W · 144 L-0.5wins0.00per pick12cpaid+3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes16c346.64$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2927,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes7c317.58$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$295.013,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb70d…43f4backed Yes70c300.37$209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.3117358.4%101 W · 72 L+14.3wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+56.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0ea8…e6cfbacked Yes10c252.05$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$227.197326%19 W · 54 L+0.1wins0.00per pick26cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd80a…c714backed Yes25c243.76$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182.51,97718.8%371 W · 1,606 L+8.0wins0.00per pick18cpaid-18.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes22c243.56$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.5317,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7e24…7379backed Yes8c239.47$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$220.1845619.1%87 W · 369 L-11.8wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-24%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x672f…13ccbacked Yes49c227.7$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.5533058.8%194 W · 136 L+10.8wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+7.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked No55c220.7$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.941,84037%681 W · 1,159 L-8.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-18.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a99…e614backed Yes11c215.55$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191.4918116.6%30 W · 151 L+5.1wins+0.03per pick14cpaid+26.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa0b1…6754backed Yes74c214.21$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.7335465%230 W · 124 L+6.8wins+0.02per pick63cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9699…b8fdbacked Yes10c205.37$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.181729.4%5 W · 12 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-3.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe712…9a10backed Yes21c194.33$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.4486847.7%414 W · 454 L+40.7wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbf14…5d95backed No18c189.39$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.1934617.9%62 W · 284 L+14.8wins+0.04per pick14cpaid-26.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0b90…08e7backed Yes18c187.55$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.4513554.8%74 W · 61 L-6.9wins-0.05per pick60cpaid-14.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes19c183.57$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.6674926.7%200 W · 549 L-20.6wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-32.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2754…1668backed No44c182.67$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.911,01860.2%613 W · 405 L+13.5wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd391…093fbacked Yes65c179.78$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.552572%18 W · 7 L+4.1wins+0.16per pick56cpaid+13.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4467…cbfcbacked No78c171.33$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.21728.6%2 W · 5 L-2.2wins-0.32per pick61cpaid-37.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed No30c166.67$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502,00138.4%768 W · 1,233 L+1.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa1e5…b209backed No62c127.56$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.065521.8%12 W · 43 L-12.8wins-0.23per pick45cpaid-57.7%equal weight32-0.16 edge/pick
0x5dd0…9f9abacked No55c127.3$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.611827.8%5 W · 13 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick34cpaid-29%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No72c126.57$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.7410,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6bee…7e78backed Yes12c125$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.751,07623.5%253 W · 823 L+69.1wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+14.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4245…a467backed Yes40c116.04$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.1360739.7%241 W · 366 L+27.7wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+10.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x99c4…0c89backed Yes21c111.44$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.481030%3 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick38cpaid-12.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0032…e886backed Yes55c109.41$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.4813537.8%51 W · 84 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7293…98e8backed Yes13c104.57$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.861618.8%3 W · 13 L-1.6wins-0.10per pick29cpaid-30.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xae68…064abacked Yes14c97.42$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.372,55563.8%1,631 W · 924 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfac5…3b30backed Yes33c93.44$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.236100%6 W · 0 L+2.5wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+88.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8aa9…7a0ebacked Yes21c79.98$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.792846.4%13 W · 15 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x919d…d88cbacked Yes19c73.5$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.7214544.8%65 W · 80 L+5.7wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+5.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf0b2…4d0bbacked Yes14c72.41$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.061717.6%3 W · 14 L+1.5wins+0.09per pick9cpaid+12%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf7f4…1e34backed No57c69.78$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.931,31245%590 W · 722 L+33.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8842…dfa7backed Yes38c66.4$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.1845236.5%165 W · 287 L+20.0wins+0.04per pick32cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes18c64.17$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.36,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x01a6…59b0backed Yes18c62.92$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.821,67961.7%1,036 W · 643 L+6.3wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf030…54c9backed No70c62.29$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.762138.1%8 W · 13 L-2.8wins-0.14per pick52cpaid-45.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xeec2…d502backed Yes67c59.61$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.92650%3 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-28.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes24c58.23$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.0639535.4%140 W · 255 L+7.2wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x750d…70f0backed Yes62c57.73$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.712759.3%16 W · 11 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick64cpaid-7.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5964…35dfbacked Yes73c55.52$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.271,27933.6%430 W · 849 L-6.3wins0.00per pick34cpaid-7.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x5073…16a7backed Yes21c55.14$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.681145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+16.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcbbd…d684backed Yes36c53.43$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.14450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+6.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeeb8…9b79backed Yes26c50.2$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.332254.5%12 W · 10 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d77…a694backed Yes20c50$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$401,16057.3%665 W · 495 L+20.1wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2986…b3a9backed No30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152,99531.4%940 W · 2,055 L+41.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7112…6d11backed No76c49.04$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.2734970.2%245 W · 104 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick68cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xda91…d760backed Yes36c45.07$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.631,01040.3%407 W · 603 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbc50…2af3backed No51c44.83$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.752157.1%12 W · 9 L-2.3wins-0.11per pick68cpaid-17.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf279…dc39backed Yes24c42.58$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.38922.2%2 W · 7 L-2.1wins-0.23per pick46cpaid-39.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa16a…57d5backed Yes46c41.55$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.637647.4%36 W · 40 L+3.3wins+0.04per pick43cpaid-7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdfe4…d1c0backed Yes30c37.65$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.353441.2%14 W · 20 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-17.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xef0d…ef1cbacked No54c37.38$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.1921848.6%106 W · 112 L-0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5245…00c4backed Yes34c36.84$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.2429640.5%120 W · 176 L-7.7wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2598…17dfbacked No56c31.89$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.781675%12 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick71cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa5c…a240backed No69c31.78$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.0419552.8%103 W · 92 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2dce…5493backed Yes47c30.78$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.451100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+114.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No79c30.46$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.159,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1eea…00c5backed No38c29.79$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.4522450.4%113 W · 111 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4811…be32backed No80c29.59$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.541154.5%6 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-11.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a75…ff13backed Yes48c29.57$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.282634.6%9 W · 17 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-24.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8ae3…3401backed Yes69c29.07$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$927463.9%175 W · 99 L-15.0wins-0.05per pick69cpaid-8.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa79a…4883backed No67c26.78$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.967534.7%26 W · 49 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-19.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8ed3…4240backed No75c25.48$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.211163.6%7 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick68cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf2cf…464bbacked No76c25.07$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.141,11563.4%707 W · 408 L+29.7wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcdd7…4a8fbacked Yes62c23.27$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.841942.1%8 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-11.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c8d…84afbacked Yes78c22.52$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.056854.4%37 W · 31 L-5.0wins-0.07per pick62cpaid-10.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd731…4199backed No79c20$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.89273.9%68 W · 24 L+5.0wins+0.05per pick69cpaid+15.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x21fc…da6abacked Yes80c20$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.061050%5 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+48.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4264…1706backed Yes78c19.9$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.3740871.8%293 W · 115 L-0.8wins0.00per pick72cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes71c19.11$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.599961.8%617 W · 382 L+19.0wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.