Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 22°C on April 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe627cfb17a4c880f72649cd3d7dcd72eed469c0a543c5abbc9d6aa3154ed45d3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,508
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,127
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,508 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 84 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5730…891ebacked No | 1c | 1,274$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.78 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 11cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5e…4033backed Yes | 32c | 1,258$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$857.01 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -62.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 42c | 711.62$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.97 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 30c | 629.78$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.99 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes | 45c | 529$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.71 | 513 | 21.2%109 W · 404 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3e…d953backed No | 75c | 471.85$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.35 | 63 | 69.8%44 W · 19 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x23d8…f6b9backed No | 77c | 443.76$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.94 | 251 | 75.7%190 W · 61 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 66cpaid | +14%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfb14…0da7backed Yes | 10c | 420.62$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380.29 | 249 | 21.3%53 W · 196 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1348…7037backed No | 44c | 407.53$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.56 | 176 | 65.9%116 W · 60 L | +12.7wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Yes | 19c | 372.79$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.54 | 336 | 20.2%68 W · 268 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc11e…75c8backed Yes | 17c | 358.92$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.39 | 86 | 23.3%20 W · 66 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc80…56a7backed No | 4c | 352.67$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 164 | 12.2%20 W · 144 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 16c | 346.64$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 7c | 317.58$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.01 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…43f4backed Yes | 70c | 300.37$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.31 | 173 | 58.4%101 W · 72 L | +14.3wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0ea8…e6cfbacked Yes | 10c | 252.05$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.19 | 73 | 26%19 W · 54 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 25c | 243.76$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.5 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 22c | 243.56$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.53 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e24…7379backed Yes | 8c | 239.47$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.18 | 456 | 19.1%87 W · 369 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x672f…13ccbacked Yes | 49c | 227.7$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.55 | 330 | 58.8%194 W · 136 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 55c | 220.7$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.94 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a99…e614backed Yes | 11c | 215.55$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.49 | 181 | 16.6%30 W · 151 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b1…6754backed Yes | 74c | 214.21$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.73 | 354 | 65%230 W · 124 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9699…b8fdbacked Yes | 10c | 205.37$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.18 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 21c | 194.33$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.44 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed No | 18c | 189.39$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.19 | 346 | 17.9%62 W · 284 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b90…08e7backed Yes | 18c | 187.55$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.45 | 135 | 54.8%74 W · 61 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 19c | 183.57$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.66 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 44c | 182.67$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.91 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd391…093fbacked Yes | 65c | 179.78$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.55 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +4.1wins | +0.16per pick | 56cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4467…cbfcbacked No | 78c | 171.33$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.21 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.32per pick | 61cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1e5…b209backed No | 62c | 127.56$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.06 | 55 | 21.8%12 W · 43 L | -12.8wins | -0.23per pick | 45cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x5dd0…9f9abacked No | 55c | 127.3$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.61 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -29%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 72c | 126.57$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.74 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 12c | 125$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.75 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 40c | 116.04$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.13 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99c4…0c89backed Yes | 21c | 111.44$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.48 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0032…e886backed Yes | 55c | 109.41$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.48 | 135 | 37.8%51 W · 84 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7293…98e8backed Yes | 13c | 104.57$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.86 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked Yes | 14c | 97.42$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.37 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfac5…3b30backed Yes | 33c | 93.44$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.23 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.5wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +88.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa9…7a0ebacked Yes | 21c | 79.98$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.79 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x919d…d88cbacked Yes | 19c | 73.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.72 | 145 | 44.8%65 W · 80 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b2…4d0bbacked Yes | 14c | 72.41$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.06 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 9cpaid | +12%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 57c | 69.78$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.93 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8842…dfa7backed Yes | 38c | 66.4$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.18 | 452 | 36.5%165 W · 287 L | +20.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 18c | 64.17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.3 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed Yes | 18c | 62.92$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.82 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf030…54c9backed No | 70c | 62.29$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.76 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeec2…d502backed Yes | 67c | 59.61$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.92 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes | 24c | 58.23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.06 | 395 | 35.4%140 W · 255 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x750d…70f0backed Yes | 62c | 57.73$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.71 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked Yes | 73c | 55.52$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.27 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5073…16a7backed Yes | 21c | 55.14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.68 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbd…d684backed Yes | 36c | 53.43$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.14 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb8…9b79backed Yes | 26c | 50.2$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.33 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7112…6d11backed No | 76c | 49.04$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.27 | 349 | 70.2%245 W · 104 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 36c | 45.07$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.63 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc50…2af3backed No | 51c | 44.83$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.75 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 68cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf279…dc39backed Yes | 24c | 42.58$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.38 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.23per pick | 46cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa16a…57d5backed Yes | 46c | 41.55$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.63 | 76 | 47.4%36 W · 40 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfe4…d1c0backed Yes | 30c | 37.65$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.35 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef0d…ef1cbacked No | 54c | 37.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.19 | 218 | 48.6%106 W · 112 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5245…00c4backed Yes | 34c | 36.84$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.24 | 296 | 40.5%120 W · 176 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2598…17dfbacked No | 56c | 31.89$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.78 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa5c…a240backed No | 69c | 31.78$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.04 | 195 | 52.8%103 W · 92 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dce…5493backed Yes | 47c | 30.78$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +114.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 79c | 30.46$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.15 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1eea…00c5backed No | 38c | 29.79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 224 | 50.4%113 W · 111 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4811…be32backed No | 80c | 29.59$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.54 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a75…ff13backed Yes | 48c | 29.57$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.28 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae3…3401backed Yes | 69c | 29.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 274 | 63.9%175 W · 99 L | -15.0wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa79a…4883backed No | 67c | 26.78$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.96 | 75 | 34.7%26 W · 49 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed3…4240backed No | 75c | 25.48$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.21 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 68cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 76c | 25.07$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.14 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd7…4a8fbacked Yes | 62c | 23.27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.84 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c8d…84afbacked Yes | 78c | 22.52$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.05 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | -5.0wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd731…4199backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 92 | 73.9%68 W · 24 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 69cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21fc…da6abacked Yes | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.06 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +48.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4264…1706backed Yes | 78c | 19.9$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.37 | 408 | 71.8%293 W · 115 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 71c | 19.11$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 22°C on April 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 15°C on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 19°C on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 20°C on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 21°C on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 23°C on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 24°C or higher on April 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.