TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Milan be 23°C on April 9?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$19,288
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$17,150

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,288 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 121 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd991…0133backed Yes51c811.11$411 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$410.842864.3%18 W · 10 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick67cpaid-4.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No53c676.94$361 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$315.6812,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes49c673.28$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$330.345,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed No45c558.74$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$308.782,00138.4%768 W · 1,233 L+1.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa062…7511backed Yes62c468.16$291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$290.98650%3 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-20.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0ea8…e6cfbacked Yes33c463.03$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.277326%19 W · 54 L+0.1wins0.00per pick26cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d02…704cbacked Yes9c383.25$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.7532132.7%105 W · 216 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbc50…2af3backed No62c348.06$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.92157.1%12 W · 9 L-2.3wins-0.11per pick68cpaid-17.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x95d4…839abacked Yes12c305.9$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.4428119.9%56 W · 225 L-12.9wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-20.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1361…f12bbacked Yes33c256.42$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.661,92433.8%651 W · 1,273 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes10c248.06$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.743,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes16c233.98$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.446219.8%61 W · 560 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick11cpaid+3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x882f…5967backed Yes42c224.38$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.623414.7%5 W · 29 L-5.0wins-0.15per pick29cpaid-61.3%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No58c217.33$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.738,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x62b6…e6d9backed No36c196.17$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.55333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-7.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe712…9a10backed Yes32c193.15$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.4786847.7%414 W · 454 L+40.7wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcf49…2486backed Yes39c190$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.315545.2%70 W · 85 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2be6…e054backed Yes8c181.99$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.5334319.5%67 W · 276 L+22.4wins+0.07per pick13cpaid+19%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2e62…b22ebacked No38c172.51$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10774926.7%200 W · 549 L-20.6wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-32.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No65c164.53$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.54,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5530…9936backed No68c162.64$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.5510059%59 W · 41 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4e9c…d0abbacked No22c134.93$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.64535.6%16 W · 29 L+4.3wins+0.09per pick26cpaid+64.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8651…2465backed Yes72c134.38$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.2430%0 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x08ee…c0cbbacked Yes60c125.25$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.667744.2%34 W · 43 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-7.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes46c123.54$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.49,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb70d…43f4backed Yes51c116.64$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.417358.4%101 W · 72 L+14.3wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+56.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb581…0308backed Yes61c110.85$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.2535843.9%157 W · 201 L+8.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x747c…443bbacked Yes55c105.78$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.638643%37 W · 49 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-4.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1534…c5e4backed Yes10c103.25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.01475%3 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.36per pick39cpaid+126.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6bee…7e78backed Yes39c101.8$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401,07623.5%253 W · 823 L+69.1wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+14.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5245…00c4backed Yes46c101.25$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.829640.5%120 W · 176 L-7.7wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xae8f…c820backed Yes40c98.11$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.6863538.1%242 W · 393 L+6.2wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes44c95.27$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.639535.4%140 W · 255 L+7.2wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3d14…ee01backed Yes49c94.9$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.54037.5%15 W · 25 L-3.7wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-28%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xbd84…109dbacked Yes25c92.84$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.822028.2%62 W · 158 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1382…7820backed Yes40c91.91$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.4314736.1%53 W · 94 L-6.2wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-10.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes43c83.97$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.077,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6400…331abacked No78c79.24$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.1842469.1%293 W · 131 L+8.4wins+0.02per pick67cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x74e3…242cbacked No61c78.89$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.83450%2 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.21per pick71cpaid-27%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x01a6…59b0backed No61c77.88$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.231,67961.7%1,036 W · 643 L+6.3wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f57…c3acbacked Yes30c76.7$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.267946.8%37 W · 42 L+4.0wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+20.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf7a8…9f68backed Yes40c74.99$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.2634633.8%117 W · 229 L+17.3wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7b20…62cbbacked No59c73.52$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.8211874.6%88 W · 30 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick72cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked Yes53c73.28$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.611,99152.3%1,042 W · 949 L-76.1wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3f0a…bb29backed Yes20c68.9$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.7811425.4%29 W · 85 L+6.5wins+0.06per pick20cpaid+25.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfb14…0da7backed No16c68.08$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.3224921.3%53 W · 196 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick20cpaid-22.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9699…b8fdbacked Yes74c64.67$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.131729.4%5 W · 12 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-3.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes39c64.26$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.0312,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes45c63.82$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.66,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9765…242ebacked Yes63c63$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.943650%18 W · 18 L-2.6wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-12.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf877…4463backed No62c61.75$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.461100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4e83…5659backed Yes40c60$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244344.2%19 W · 24 L-4.9wins-0.11per pick56cpaid-27.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes39c59.99$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.33,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xae68…064abacked No61c59.37$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.312,55563.8%1,631 W · 924 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xeec2…d502backed Yes67c58.96$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.63650%3 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-28.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa5f…08d5backed Yes51c57.98$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.544367.4%29 W · 14 L+2.2wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5db1…c653backed Yes51c57.37$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.97728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.24per pick53cpaid-39.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5abd…78fcbacked Yes42c55.91$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.55728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-24.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes57c54.15$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.699961.8%617 W · 382 L+19.0wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x99c4…0c89backed Yes46c53.15$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.251030%3 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick38cpaid-12.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes45c52.15$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.5744945.9%206 W · 243 L+10.2wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3c41…6275backed Yes25c51.02$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.5126327.8%73 W · 190 L+14.9wins+0.06per pick22cpaid-4.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2298…9f33backed No55c50$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.535168.4%240 W · 111 L-4.9wins-0.01per pick70cpaid-0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2986…b3a9backed No30c50$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$352,99531.4%940 W · 2,055 L+41.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x402a…bf33backed No48c50$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.115046%23 W · 27 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-14.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf2cf…464bbacked No71c49.36$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.231,11563.4%707 W · 408 L+29.7wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4245…a467backed Yes49c49.04$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.0160739.7%241 W · 366 L+27.7wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+10.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe272…ac63backed Yes40c48.25$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.520534.1%70 W · 135 L+10.6wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+31.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc769…0925backed Yes27c47.74$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133938.5%15 W · 24 L+3.1wins+0.08per pick31cpaid+34.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9524…74fdbacked Yes50c47.13$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.76837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd80a…c714backed Yes27c46.94$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.561,97718.8%371 W · 1,606 L+8.0wins0.00per pick18cpaid-18.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes23c46.62$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.9217,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x73d0…6972backed Yes44c44.98$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.5922959.8%137 W · 92 L+6.7wins+0.03per pick57cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9631…a38cbacked Yes45c44.78$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9849750.3%250 W · 247 L+20.9wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+24.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x12cc…275dbacked Yes71c43.83$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.15463%34 W · 20 L0.0wins0.00per pick63cpaid-12.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a3c…1b6fbacked Yes49c38$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.629235.9%33 W · 59 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+7.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No53c37.6$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.762,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x919d…d88cbacked Yes39c36.48$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.0814544.8%65 W · 80 L+5.7wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+5.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2ffc…c66fbacked Yes54c35.64$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.1416836.3%61 W · 107 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-0.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe8e6…aa6cbacked No69c35.17$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.9511977.3%92 W · 27 L+4.9wins+0.04per pick73cpaid+6.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3149…f690backed No73c35$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.456100%6 W · 0 L+2.3wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+91.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5964…35dfbacked Yes68c34.11$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.361,27933.6%430 W · 849 L-6.3wins0.00per pick34cpaid-7.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xea0d…c1b6backed No57c33.54$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.2621676.4%165 W · 51 L+12.5wins+0.06per pick71cpaid+5.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x801a…5a2dbacked Yes30c33.48$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.04757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick51cpaid-6.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x32f0…c659backed No60c32.99$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.3123547.7%112 W · 123 L+0.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc24f…81d3backed No62c32.59$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.3898571%699 W · 286 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd7cf…7825backed No58c32.56$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.6828954.3%157 W · 132 L-8.1wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-6.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeeb8…9b79backed No53c31.46$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.682254.5%12 W · 10 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbfcc…b884backed No70c31$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.35100%5 W · 0 L+1.9wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+87%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked No54c30.41$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.081,84037%681 W · 1,159 L-8.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-18.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5073…16a7backed Yes45c29.42$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.251145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+16.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x966c…087fbacked No50c29.18$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.744147.4%209 W · 232 L-17.5wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-10.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No49c29.1$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.762,11936.1%764 W · 1,355 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8ae3…3401backed Yes70c29.1$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.3727463.9%175 W · 99 L-15.0wins-0.05per pick69cpaid-8.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0a84…171fbacked Yes49c28.99$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.125239.7%100 W · 152 L-0.3wins0.00per pick40cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf2bb…ae21backed Yes43c28.28$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.2335362.9%222 W · 131 L+16.9wins+0.05per pick58cpaid+8.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4add…fb04backed Yes69c27.61$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.0911844.9%53 W · 65 L-0.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f90…4e02backed Yes52c27.46$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.2814613.7%20 W · 126 L-19.1wins-0.13per pick27cpaid-44.1%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x2097…8063backed No55c25.93$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.69668.8%66 W · 30 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick70cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e9c…f3a8backed No74c25$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.560236.5%220 W · 382 L-2.4wins0.00per pick37cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.