Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 23°C on April 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa37c9b12bdc5874b2d6c4d77b82b2fd9d3f1b4324d3ec8ee8fb8331d38bdab00
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,288
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,150
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,288 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 121 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd991…0133backed Yes | 51c | 811.11$411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410.84 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 67cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 53c | 676.94$361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.68 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 49c | 673.28$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.34 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 45c | 558.74$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.78 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa062…7511backed Yes | 62c | 468.16$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.98 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ea8…e6cfbacked Yes | 33c | 463.03$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.27 | 73 | 26%19 W · 54 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…704cbacked Yes | 9c | 383.25$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.75 | 321 | 32.7%105 W · 216 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc50…2af3backed No | 62c | 348.06$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.9 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 68cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x95d4…839abacked Yes | 12c | 305.9$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.44 | 281 | 19.9%56 W · 225 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 33c | 256.42$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.66 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 10c | 248.06$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.74 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 16c | 233.98$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.44 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x882f…5967backed Yes | 42c | 224.38$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.62 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | -5.0wins | -0.15per pick | 29cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 58c | 217.33$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.73 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62b6…e6d9backed No | 36c | 196.17$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.55 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 32c | 193.15$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.47 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf49…2486backed Yes | 39c | 190$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.3 | 155 | 45.2%70 W · 85 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Yes | 8c | 181.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 343 | 19.5%67 W · 276 L | +22.4wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 38c | 172.51$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 65c | 164.53$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.5 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…9936backed No | 68c | 162.64$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.55 | 100 | 59%59 W · 41 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e9c…d0abbacked No | 22c | 134.93$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.6 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | +4.3wins | +0.09per pick | 26cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8651…2465backed Yes | 72c | 134.38$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.24 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x08ee…c0cbbacked Yes | 60c | 125.25$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.66 | 77 | 44.2%34 W · 43 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 46c | 123.54$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.4 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…43f4backed Yes | 51c | 116.64$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.4 | 173 | 58.4%101 W · 72 L | +14.3wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed Yes | 61c | 110.85$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.25 | 358 | 43.9%157 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x747c…443bbacked Yes | 55c | 105.78$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.63 | 86 | 43%37 W · 49 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1534…c5e4backed Yes | 10c | 103.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.36per pick | 39cpaid | +126.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 39c | 101.8$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5245…00c4backed Yes | 46c | 101.25$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.8 | 296 | 40.5%120 W · 176 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 40c | 98.11$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.68 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes | 44c | 95.27$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.6 | 395 | 35.4%140 W · 255 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d14…ee01backed Yes | 49c | 94.9$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.5 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -28%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd84…109dbacked Yes | 25c | 92.84$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 220 | 28.2%62 W · 158 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1382…7820backed Yes | 40c | 91.91$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.43 | 147 | 36.1%53 W · 94 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 43c | 83.97$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.07 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6400…331abacked No | 78c | 79.24$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.18 | 424 | 69.1%293 W · 131 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74e3…242cbacked No | 61c | 78.89$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.83 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -27%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 61c | 77.88$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.23 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f57…c3acbacked Yes | 30c | 76.7$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.26 | 79 | 46.8%37 W · 42 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a8…9f68backed Yes | 40c | 74.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.26 | 346 | 33.8%117 W · 229 L | +17.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…62cbbacked No | 59c | 73.52$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.82 | 118 | 74.6%88 W · 30 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 53c | 73.28$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.61 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0a…bb29backed Yes | 20c | 68.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 114 | 25.4%29 W · 85 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb14…0da7backed No | 16c | 68.08$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.32 | 249 | 21.3%53 W · 196 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9699…b8fdbacked Yes | 74c | 64.67$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.13 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 39c | 64.26$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.03 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 45c | 63.82$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.6 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9765…242ebacked Yes | 63c | 63$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.94 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf877…4463backed No | 62c | 61.75$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e83…5659backed Yes | 40c | 60$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -4.9wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 39c | 59.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.3 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 61c | 59.37$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.31 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeec2…d502backed Yes | 67c | 58.96$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.63 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5f…08d5backed Yes | 51c | 57.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.54 | 43 | 67.4%29 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5db1…c653backed Yes | 51c | 57.37$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.97 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 53cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5abd…78fcbacked Yes | 42c | 55.91$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.55 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 57c | 54.15$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99c4…0c89backed Yes | 46c | 53.15$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.25 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 45c | 52.15$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.57 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c41…6275backed Yes | 25c | 51.02$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 263 | 27.8%73 W · 190 L | +14.9wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2298…9f33backed No | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 351 | 68.4%240 W · 111 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x402a…bf33backed No | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.11 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 71c | 49.36$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.23 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 49c | 49.04$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.01 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe272…ac63backed Yes | 40c | 48.25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 205 | 34.1%70 W · 135 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc769…0925backed Yes | 27c | 47.74$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9524…74fdbacked Yes | 50c | 47.13$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.76 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 27c | 46.94$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.56 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 23c | 46.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73d0…6972backed Yes | 44c | 44.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.59 | 229 | 59.8%137 W · 92 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 45c | 44.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 497 | 50.3%250 W · 247 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12cc…275dbacked Yes | 71c | 43.83$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.1 | 54 | 63%34 W · 20 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a3c…1b6fbacked Yes | 49c | 38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.62 | 92 | 35.9%33 W · 59 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 53c | 37.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.76 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x919d…d88cbacked Yes | 39c | 36.48$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 145 | 44.8%65 W · 80 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffc…c66fbacked Yes | 54c | 35.64$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.14 | 168 | 36.3%61 W · 107 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e6…aa6cbacked No | 69c | 35.17$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.95 | 119 | 77.3%92 W · 27 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3149…f690backed No | 73c | 35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.3wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +91.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked Yes | 68c | 34.11$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.36 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea0d…c1b6backed No | 57c | 33.54$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.26 | 216 | 76.4%165 W · 51 L | +12.5wins | +0.06per pick | 71cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x801a…5a2dbacked Yes | 30c | 33.48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32f0…c659backed No | 60c | 32.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.31 | 235 | 47.7%112 W · 123 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 62c | 32.59$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.38 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cf…7825backed No | 58c | 32.56$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.68 | 289 | 54.3%157 W · 132 L | -8.1wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb8…9b79backed No | 53c | 31.46$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.68 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfcc…b884backed No | 70c | 31$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +87%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 54c | 30.41$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.08 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5073…16a7backed Yes | 45c | 29.42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…087fbacked No | 50c | 29.18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 441 | 47.4%209 W · 232 L | -17.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 49c | 29.1$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.76 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae3…3401backed Yes | 70c | 29.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.37 | 274 | 63.9%175 W · 99 L | -15.0wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a84…171fbacked Yes | 49c | 28.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 252 | 39.7%100 W · 152 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bb…ae21backed Yes | 43c | 28.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.23 | 353 | 62.9%222 W · 131 L | +16.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…fb04backed Yes | 69c | 27.61$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.09 | 118 | 44.9%53 W · 65 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f90…4e02backed Yes | 52c | 27.46$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 146 | 13.7%20 W · 126 L | -19.1wins | -0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2097…8063backed No | 55c | 25.93$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 96 | 68.8%66 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed No | 74c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 23°C on April 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 15°C on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 19°C on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 20°C on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 21°C on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 22°C on April 9?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 24°C or higher on April 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.