Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 24°C or higher on April 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x63a6def69bed8f6770e8e32dae3ab3451cdac4539c5f4c5c09d722bdfb8aa4f5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,020
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,259
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,020 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 104 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 13c | 663.91$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.18 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 23c | 591.8$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.85 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 35c | 434.04$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.99 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 10c | 395.19$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.88 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ea8…e6cfbacked Yes | 13c | 291.25$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.17 | 73 | 26%19 W · 54 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 22c | 278.84$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.79 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6400…331abacked No | 71c | 269.81$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.63 | 424 | 69.1%293 W · 131 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 24c | 262.11$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.28 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 67c | 258.5$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.31 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 37c | 256.86$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.49 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8651…2465backed Yes | 31c | 222.19$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.86 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…8e12backed Yes | 9c | 218.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.65 | 474 | 42.4%201 W · 273 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 20c | 216.24$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.46 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f9…e221backed Yes | 10c | 200.65$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 13c | 198.87$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.12 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5abd…78fcbacked Yes | 23c | 198.74$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.16 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 28c | 192.4$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.75 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x76a6…b7dcbacked Yes | 43c | 185.43$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.53 | 148 | 34.5%51 W · 97 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fd…41fdbacked Yes | 32c | 174.68$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 73c | 158.77$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.2 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd38…ddadbacked No | 79c | 157.57$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.61 | 254 | 49.2%125 W · 129 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb43…e61bbacked Yes | 33c | 150$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 67 | 47.8%32 W · 35 L | +6.6wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 73c | 147.41$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.2 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…62cbbacked No | 78c | 141.33$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.43 | 118 | 74.6%88 W · 30 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 11c | 136.82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 80c | 136.34$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.76 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed Yes | 28c | 106.76$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.29 | 358 | 43.9%157 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 28c | 105.11$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37e7…4a56backed Yes | 37c | 103.03$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.68 | 116 | 37.1%43 W · 73 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 26c | 99.95$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.99 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 20c | 97.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3d14…ee01backed Yes | 25c | 92.47$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.85 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -28%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfabc…7178backed No | 78c | 89.18$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.82 | 91 | 76.9%70 W · 21 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 20c | 81.65$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.31 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 62c | 77.46$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.43 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73d0…6972backed Yes | 28c | 77.41$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.96 | 229 | 59.8%137 W · 92 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x358b…3722backed Yes | 31c | 77.35$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.28 | 525 | 33.1%174 W · 351 L | +21.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 20c | 75.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.35 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f6…eadabacked No | 77c | 72.81$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 165 | 75.8%125 W · 40 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc8…2389backed No | 73c | 71.54$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.02 | 171 | 56.7%97 W · 74 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 16c | 70.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe272…ac63backed Yes | 29c | 67.17$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 205 | 34.1%70 W · 135 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd11c…ff7dbacked Yes | 34c | 66$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.44 | 347 | 48.7%169 W · 178 L | +13.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c7…6dc4backed Yes | 44c | 63.74$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.33 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9524…74fdbacked Yes | 45c | 62.87$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.34 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdad6…0d14backed Yes | 27c | 61.78$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.68 | 148 | 29.7%44 W · 104 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked No | 79c | 60.94$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.09 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0966…6ed2backed Yes | 24c | 58.62$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -4.2wins | -0.21per pick | 56cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x14ea…998bbacked Yes | 23c | 57.57$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 159 | 37.7%60 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8208…a737backed No | 77c | 56.93$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.06 | 226 | 75.7%171 W · 55 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0877…6770backed Yes | 19c | 53.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea0d…c1b6backed No | 78c | 53.74$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.98 | 216 | 76.4%165 W · 51 L | +12.5wins | +0.06per pick | 71cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 76c | 52.79$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 23c | 52.47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc769…0925backed Yes | 29c | 52.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc99e…74abbacked No | 77c | 51.66$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.89 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 74cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2298…9f33backed No | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 351 | 68.4%240 W · 111 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x402a…bf33backed Yes | 20c | 49.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 71c | 49.87$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.53 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 77c | 48.45$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 21c | 48.12$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc52a…e37abacked No | 79c | 47.77$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.89 | 182 | 72%131 W · 51 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e04…d367backed No | 77c | 47.36$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.98 | 89 | 69.7%62 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…54abbacked No | 68c | 46.47$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.83 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 70c | 46.08$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.72 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a1…20f9backed No | 61c | 44.31$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.06 | 340 | 57.1%194 W · 146 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5608…c0dbbacked Yes | 26c | 43.91$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 191 | 60.7%116 W · 75 L | +11.6wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd84…109dbacked Yes | 28c | 43.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.14 | 220 | 28.2%62 W · 158 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f18…5b28backed No | 77c | 42.92$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.08 | 265 | 66.4%176 W · 89 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12d2…f392backed Yes | 32c | 42.86$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda7b…3c9fbacked No | 71c | 42.25$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 125 | 67.2%84 W · 41 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x712d…1d71backed Yes | 35c | 42.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.73 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed Yes | 38c | 40.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.47 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cf…7825backed No | 72c | 39.41$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.89 | 289 | 54.3%157 W · 132 L | -8.1wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a3c…1b6fbacked Yes | 29c | 35.3$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 92 | 35.9%33 W · 59 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 72c | 33.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.55 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1304…751ebacked No | 65c | 33.33$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.72 | 130 | 67.7%88 W · 42 L | +8.7wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 78c | 30.9$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed No | 63c | 30.66$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.37 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2347…5adfbacked No | 70c | 28.38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 119 | 38.7%46 W · 73 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e84…e08dbacked No | 78c | 28.36$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.18 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.15per pick | 65cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x198a…2080backed Yes | 40c | 27.23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 71 | 21.1%15 W · 56 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x395f…bd17backed No | 63c | 26.31$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.73 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39fa…0b7dbacked No | 71c | 25.35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 407 | 77.1%314 W · 93 L | +28.1wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe0eb…a7d8backed No | 77c | 25.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.78 | 58 | 74.1%43 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x625f…5c20backed No | 79c | 24.93$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.36 | 96 | 66.7%64 W · 32 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x05ae…7bc6backed No | 64c | 24.82$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.93 | 47 | 61.7%29 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…9936backed No | 79c | 24.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 100 | 59%59 W · 41 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 74c | 24.5$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad65…b49ebacked No | 77c | 24.24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.48 | 77 | 71.4%55 W · 22 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4403…eb44backed No | 73c | 23.74$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.41 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x105c…1011backed No | 65c | 22.02$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 112 | 20.5%23 W · 89 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d81…259bbacked No | 60c | 20.9$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.36 | 97 | 56.7%55 W · 42 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 74c | 20.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.34 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x529c…64b6backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 57 | 19.3%11 W · 46 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2097…8063backed No | 73c | 19.9$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.3 | 96 | 68.8%66 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb211…10b3backed No | 73c | 19.73$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 94 | 53.2%50 W · 44 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcaa2…15eabacked No | 71c | 19.08$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.47 | 141 | 35.5%50 W · 91 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb869…a2acbacked No | 69c | 16.8$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.17 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 71cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 24°C or higher on April 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 15°C on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 19°C on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 20°C on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 21°C on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 22°C on April 9?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 23°C on April 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.