TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Milan be 24°C or higher on April 9?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$17,020
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$15,259

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,020 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 104 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes13c663.91$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.185,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes23c591.8$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.851,86123.8%443 W · 1,418 L+47.9wins+0.03per pick21cpaid+13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes35c434.04$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.998,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1735…0319backed Yes10c395.19$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.881,48015.6%231 W · 1,249 L+26.5wins+0.02per pick14cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0ea8…e6cfbacked Yes13c291.25$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.177326%19 W · 54 L+0.1wins0.00per pick26cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes22c278.84$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.797,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6400…331abacked No71c269.81$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.6342469.1%293 W · 131 L+8.4wins+0.02per pick67cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5264…9a63backed Yes24c262.11$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.2874023.9%177 W · 563 L+23.6wins+0.03per pick21cpaid+23.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed No67c258.5$173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.312,00138.4%768 W · 1,233 L+1.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1361…f12bbacked Yes37c256.86$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.491,92433.8%651 W · 1,273 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8651…2465backed Yes31c222.19$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.8630%0 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc6b2…8e12backed Yes9c218.58$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.6547442.4%201 W · 273 L-9.3wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-26.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes20c216.24$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.469,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe5f9…e221backed Yes10c200.65$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.3620%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6bee…7e78backed Yes13c198.87$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.121,07623.5%253 W · 823 L+69.1wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+14.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5abd…78fcbacked Yes23c198.74$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.16728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-24.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe712…9a10backed Yes28c192.4$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.7586847.7%414 W · 454 L+40.7wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x76a6…b7dcbacked Yes43c185.43$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.5314834.5%51 W · 97 L-3.3wins-0.02per pick37cpaid+1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe6fd…41fdbacked Yes32c174.68$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.9210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No73c158.77$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.24,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd38…ddadbacked No79c157.57$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.6125449.2%125 W · 129 L-8.5wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeb43…e61bbacked Yes33c150$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.56747.8%32 W · 35 L+6.6wins+0.10per pick38cpaid+31.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No73c147.41$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.22,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7b20…62cbbacked No78c141.33$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.4311874.6%88 W · 30 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick72cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes11c136.82$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.3674926.7%200 W · 549 L-20.6wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-32.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc24f…81d3backed No80c136.34$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.7698571%699 W · 286 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb581…0308backed Yes28c106.76$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.2935843.9%157 W · 201 L+8.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes28c105.11$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.659125.9%153 W · 438 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-1.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x37e7…4a56backed Yes37c103.03$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.6811637.1%43 W · 73 L-5.3wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-17.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xae8f…c820backed Yes26c99.95$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.9963538.1%242 W · 393 L+6.2wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes20c97.51$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.7412,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x3d14…ee01backed Yes25c92.47$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.854037.5%15 W · 25 L-3.7wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-28%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xfabc…7178backed No78c89.18$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.829176.9%70 W · 21 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick74cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes20c81.65$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.316,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaad7…cf8fbacked No62c77.46$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.4386173.2%630 W · 231 L+13.2wins+0.02per pick72cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x73d0…6972backed Yes28c77.41$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.9622959.8%137 W · 92 L+6.7wins+0.03per pick57cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x358b…3722backed Yes31c77.35$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.2852533.1%174 W · 351 L+21.7wins+0.04per pick29cpaid+27.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes20c75.45$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.351,84037%681 W · 1,159 L-8.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-18.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb4f6…eadabacked No77c72.81$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.116575.8%125 W · 40 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick72cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7cc8…2389backed No73c71.54$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.0217156.7%97 W · 74 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes16c70.38$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.472,11936.1%764 W · 1,355 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe272…ac63backed Yes29c67.17$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.3220534.1%70 W · 135 L+10.6wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+31.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd11c…ff7dbacked Yes34c66$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.4434748.7%169 W · 178 L+13.5wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+8.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd9c7…6dc4backed Yes44c63.74$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.332653.8%14 W · 12 L+1.7wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9524…74fdbacked Yes45c62.87$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.34837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdad6…0d14backed Yes27c61.78$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.6814829.7%44 W · 104 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick28cpaid+10%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x286d…825abacked No79c60.94$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.0962555.2%345 W · 280 L-12.1wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0966…6ed2backed Yes24c58.62$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.852035%7 W · 13 L-4.2wins-0.21per pick56cpaid-51.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x14ea…998bbacked Yes23c57.57$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.2615937.7%60 W · 99 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8208…a737backed No77c56.93$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.0622675.7%171 W · 55 L+9.0wins+0.04per pick72cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0877…6770backed Yes19c53.99$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.462025%5 W · 15 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid+16.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea0d…c1b6backed No78c53.74$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.9821676.4%165 W · 51 L+12.5wins+0.06per pick71cpaid+5.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x94b1…27cbbacked No76c52.79$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.7897570.6%688 W · 287 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe752…2200backed Yes23c52.47$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.071,20425.3%305 W · 899 L+18.2wins+0.02per pick24cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc769…0925backed Yes29c52.23$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.993938.5%15 W · 24 L+3.1wins+0.08per pick31cpaid+34.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc99e…74abbacked No77c51.66$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.891060%6 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.14per pick74cpaid-22.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2298…9f33backed No62c50$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1935168.4%240 W · 111 L-4.9wins-0.01per pick70cpaid-0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d77…a694backed Yes23c50$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.51,16057.3%665 W · 495 L+20.1wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x402a…bf33backed Yes20c49.98$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.035046%23 W · 27 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-14.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x01a6…59b0backed No71c49.87$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.531,67961.7%1,036 W · 643 L+6.3wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae47…638dbacked No77c48.45$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.3252571.2%374 W · 151 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes21c48.12$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0944945.9%206 W · 243 L+10.2wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc52a…e37abacked No79c47.77$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.8918272%131 W · 51 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick73cpaid-1.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x4e04…d367backed No77c47.36$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.988969.7%62 W · 27 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick71cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2cc7…54abbacked No68c46.47$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.8318650.5%94 W · 92 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xae68…064abacked No70c46.08$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.722,55563.8%1,631 W · 924 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe2a1…20f9backed No61c44.31$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.0634057.1%194 W · 146 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5608…c0dbbacked Yes26c43.91$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2919160.7%116 W · 75 L+11.6wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+8.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbd84…109dbacked Yes28c43.61$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.1422028.2%62 W · 158 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f18…5b28backed No77c42.92$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.0826566.4%176 W · 89 L+13.0wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+6.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x12d2…f392backed Yes32c42.86$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda7b…3c9fbacked No71c42.25$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.2512567.2%84 W · 41 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick64cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x712d…1d71backed Yes35c42.08$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.731136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick32cpaid+41.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xca1f…d282backed Yes38c40.75$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.471,72264%1,102 W · 620 L-10.1wins-0.01per pick65cpaid+1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd7cf…7825backed No72c39.41$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.8928954.3%157 W · 132 L-8.1wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-6.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2a3c…1b6fbacked Yes29c35.3$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.249235.9%33 W · 59 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+7.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No72c33.99$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.559,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1304…751ebacked No65c33.33$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.7213067.7%88 W · 42 L+8.7wins+0.07per pick61cpaid+12.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf5dc…dec3backed No78c30.9$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.91,36069.3%943 W · 417 L+9.4wins+0.01per pick69cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb49f…1821backed No63c30.66$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.371,06153.2%564 W · 497 L+33.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2347…5adfbacked No70c28.38$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.411938.7%46 W · 73 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-13.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4e84…e08dbacked No78c28.36$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.181580%12 W · 3 L+2.2wins+0.15per pick65cpaid+12.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x198a…2080backed Yes40c27.23$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.897121.1%15 W · 56 L-3.1wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-38.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x395f…bd17backed No63c26.31$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.73425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick43cpaid-60.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x39fa…0b7dbacked No71c25.35$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.3540777.1%314 W · 93 L+28.1wins+0.07per pick70cpaid+9.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xe0eb…a7d8backed No77c25.33$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.785874.1%43 W · 15 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick72cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x625f…5c20backed No79c24.93$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.369666.7%64 W · 32 L-5.7wins-0.06per pick73cpaid-7.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x05ae…7bc6backed No64c24.82$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.934761.7%29 W · 18 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick64cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5530…9936backed No79c24.78$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.210059%59 W · 41 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9770…d57dbacked No74c24.5$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.3248672%350 W · 136 L+9.4wins+0.02per pick70cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xad65…b49ebacked No77c24.24$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.487771.4%55 W · 22 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick71cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4403…eb44backed No73c23.74$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.413100%3 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+45.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x105c…1011backed No65c22.02$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.7811220.5%23 W · 89 L-3.4wins-0.03per pick24cpaid+7.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7d81…259bbacked No60c20.9$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.369756.7%55 W · 42 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x35e6…7a4dbacked No74c20.27$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.341,69960.6%1,029 W · 670 L-24.7wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x529c…64b6backed No56c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.85719.3%11 W · 46 L-3.0wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2097…8063backed No73c19.9$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.39668.8%66 W · 30 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick70cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb211…10b3backed No73c19.73$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.279453.2%50 W · 44 L-6.0wins-0.06per pick60cpaid-18.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcaa2…15eabacked No71c19.08$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.4714135.5%50 W · 91 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-12.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb869…a2acbacked No69c16.8$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.171662.5%10 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick71cpaid-10.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.