Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on July 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe636f827b3e9301f59b3a300ffef77d471efd74f7c23be4ffa441102d1827e1a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,976
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,603
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,976 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5500…b4f6backed Yes | 32c | 1,577$505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504.58 | 175 | 36%63 W · 112 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 71c | 415.94$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.8 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 21c | 341.65$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.6 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 68c | 338$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.16 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 26c | 225$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.75 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 22c | 206.92$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.2 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed No | 68c | 205.75$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.84 | 348 | 53.4%186 W · 162 L | -19.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3458…b5a7backed No | 78c | 205.7$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.02 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -2.5wins | -0.12per pick | 66cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 73c | 184.75$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.09 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 36c | 159.94$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.78 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 36c | 158$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.73 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 28c | 151.43$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.45 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e3…5296backed Yes | 34c | 145.72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 203 | 39.9%81 W · 122 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 68c | 144.44$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.22 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 67c | 138.66$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.76 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 35c | 125.92$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.64 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b33…9f80backed Yes | 28c | 125.23$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.95 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 15c | 124.48$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.02 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 61c | 120.6$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.5 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 31c | 120.41$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.2 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ed…156fbacked No | 68c | 105$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 123 | 51.2%63 W · 60 L | -9.5wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 23c | 103.94$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 75c | 102.38$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.03 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 23c | 95.5$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.94 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 56c | 91.9$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.81 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 13c | 88.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 15c | 87.9$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 47c | 84.5$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.7 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 22c | 81.4$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.87 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 73c | 75$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 68c | 72.69$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.42 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 58c | 70.86$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.07 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c6…2b25backed Yes | 33c | 61.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 329 | 58.7%193 W · 136 L | +17.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3c…ca16backed No | 67c | 59.7$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.7 | 149 | 34.2%51 W · 98 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 69c | 54.32$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.84 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x666d…340bbacked Yes | 22c | 53.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe775…01d2backed Yes | 32c | 47.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.29 | 96 | 46.9%45 W · 51 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed Yes | 29c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 67c | 38.71$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.66 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 31c | 37.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…4f88backed Yes | 54c | 35.71$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 388 | 60.1%233 W · 155 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 61c | 33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.87 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 79c | 30.64$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.56 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fa…9611backed No | 68c | 29.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.56 | 155 | 55.5%86 W · 69 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 72c | 26.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed No | 66c | 26.85$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.23 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 69c | 24.74$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.71 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 72c | 23.01$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.52 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 71c | 21.31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.22 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.53 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6793…1869backed No | 78c | 19.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.23 | 315 | 64.8%204 W · 111 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 67c | 18.93$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ad…f244backed Yes | 79c | 16$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 75c | 15.77$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.91 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ece…1949backed No | 66c | 15.61$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.31 | 173 | 61.8%107 W · 66 L | -9.8wins | -0.06per pick | 68cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 80c | 13.48$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.71 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on July 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 86-87°F on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on July 1?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 94-95°F on July 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.