Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 31°C on June 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe649eed95f2f1885eeb0be09eae1c2947af2c2644585257a664dc33a2b735f6c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,992
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,417
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,992 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 29c | 1,166$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.61 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 2c | 576.85$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.01 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 71c | 500$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 24c | 385.99$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.77 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 71c | 279$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.78 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 69c | 242.54$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.33 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 29c | 200.99$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.66 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed No | 71c | 200$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a0…9d29backed Yes | 16c | 197.56$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.02 | 91 | 37.4%34 W · 57 L | +6.6wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 27c | 194.87$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.6 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 67c | 190$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.2 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f4…f04cbacked Yes | 23c | 188.83$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.53 | 174 | 40.8%71 W · 103 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 14c | 146.74$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.56 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 17c | 124.48$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.27 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 11c | 107.13$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.71 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.07 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed Yes | 29c | 89.14$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.25 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 35c | 83.93$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.06 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 19c | 80.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.13 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdef4…de94backed Yes | 28c | 71.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked No | 71c | 70$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.3 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7fd0…22c8backed Yes | 30c | 69$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc33a…cc98backed No | 76c | 66.2$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.89 | 54 | 68.5%37 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94ae…d801backed Yes | 33c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 139 | 50.4%70 W · 69 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 29c | 52.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed No | 73c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.61 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe5…4745backed Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 186 | 29.6%55 W · 131 L | -15.3wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 31c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.46 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 35c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed Yes | 34c | 48$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.53 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5174…8a39backed Yes | 34c | 44.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e3…6863backed Yes | 28c | 43.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.27 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -26%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 29c | 41.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.91 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 29c | 40.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 31c | 40.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 27c | 39.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 71c | 38.38$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.13 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 38c | 33.37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 71c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf576…a786backed No | 66c | 26.48$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 376 | 69.4%261 W · 115 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 71c | 24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.96 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 62c | 23.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.08 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe709…a381backed No | 74c | 22.85$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.94 | 82 | 58.5%48 W · 34 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 72c | 22.43$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.38 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 71c | 22.39$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.39 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 72c | 20.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.74 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43fd…59d3backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 159 | 61.6%98 W · 61 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65a5…2aeebacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 164 | 53%87 W · 77 L | -12.5wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3d60…6df2backed No | 65c | 18.82$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.59 | 257 | 66.1%170 W · 87 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd489…7f08backed No | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 95 | 66.3%63 W · 32 L | -9.2wins | -0.10per pick | 76cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 72c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.92 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 31°C on June 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 30°C or below on June 27?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 32°C on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 33°C on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 34°C on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 35°C on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 36°C on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 39°C on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 40°C or higher on June 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.