Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 30°C or below on June 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x009360e2274d2501f85a8631f56e1579565868b642b3fa94da2605d53835a057
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,044
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,517
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,044 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xda33…daccbacked No | 69c | 1,873$1,297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,297.12 | 58 | 34.5%20 W · 38 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked Yes | 31c | 1,832$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,272.55 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 23c | 845.3$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$654.16 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 21c | 733.64$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$577.29 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 14c | 580.9$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.59 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked No | 3c | 390.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 76c | 369$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.95 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7529…9d10backed No | 58c | 338.17$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.73 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -27%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed Yes | 69c | 324.39$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.17 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed Yes | 62c | 298.12$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.65 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 67c | 279.01$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.81 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 46c | 266.32$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.81 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 36c | 263.56$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.03 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 10c | 242$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.93 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 10c | 232.05$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.16 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e7…c275backed Yes | 54c | 203.1$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.1 | 82 | 34.1%28 W · 54 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8da…096fbacked No | 73c | 200$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.81 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe63a…0679backed Yes | 7c | 192.53$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.14 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 24c | 182.07$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.07 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 75c | 168.93$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.19 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a68…edd3backed No | 76c | 163.82$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.04 | 182 | 35.2%64 W · 118 L | -14.0wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ed…156fbacked No | 53c | 162.34$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.24 | 123 | 51.2%63 W · 60 L | -9.5wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 23c | 160.64$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.34 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 22c | 156.5$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.44 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed No | 74c | 150$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.77 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 73c | 146.89$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.16 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 22c | 135.03$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.32 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x262f…2198backed No | 77c | 130.09$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 70cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed Yes | 27c | 125$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.87 | 400 | 25.5%102 W · 298 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked Yes | 18c | 124.72$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.73 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71d0…b73abacked Yes | 23c | 116.38$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.85 | 107 | 57.9%62 W · 45 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8817…cda8backed Yes | 51c | 103.93$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.6 | 248 | 41.1%102 W · 146 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe5…4745backed No | 68c | 100$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.95 | 186 | 29.6%55 W · 131 L | -15.3wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.8 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47e6…6505backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +3.8wins | +0.15per pick | 21cpaid | +105.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 435 | 59.8%260 W · 175 L | +20.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…828ebacked Yes | 31c | 98.57$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.91 | 451 | 30.8%139 W · 312 L | +33.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1d…219ebacked No | 65c | 95.72$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.33 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 63cpaid | -55%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 57c | 90$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.24 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 17c | 88.51$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.72 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 30c | 84.16$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.68 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 77c | 76.92$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.93 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 69c | 72.96$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.34 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3887…9496backed No | 77c | 62.6$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.15 | 243 | 70%170 W · 73 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63ad…b51cbacked No | 80c | 62$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.6 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed Yes | 30c | 61.81$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.25 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 42c | 60$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.12 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 71c | 60$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.62 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a0…9d29backed Yes | 26c | 60$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.18 | 91 | 37.4%34 W · 57 L | +6.6wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed No | 60c | 60$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.24 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 70c | 60$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes | 30c | 59.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.25 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e3…6863backed Yes | 25c | 59.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.78 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -26%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd46e…11f4backed Yes | 75c | 59.59$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.96 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…e43ebacked No | 71c | 57.84$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.35 | 180 | 60%108 W · 72 L | -21.2wins | -0.12per pick | 72cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 27c | 54.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b7…c718backed No | 73c | 54.5$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc6…d496backed Yes | 32c | 51.49$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.1 | 66 | 57.6%38 W · 28 L | +4.8wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…87d3backed Yes | 21c | 50.3$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.94 | 303 | 32.3%98 W · 205 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb082…5138backed No | 69c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 31c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.51 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 61c | 49.1$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.1 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 40c | 47.06$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e28…4983backed No | 62c | 40.06$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 336 | 54.2%182 W · 154 L | -9.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…abffbacked Yes | 61c | 38.46$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.96 | 306 | 65%199 W · 107 L | +14.5wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 60c | 30.45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.29 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 71c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.35 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4e…5ac9backed No | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 214 | 72%154 W · 60 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 35c | 28.58$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x25b2…4edbbacked No | 72c | 27.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 55 | 32.7%18 W · 37 L | -7.1wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x358b…3722backed Yes | 64c | 21.22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.64 | 525 | 33.1%174 W · 351 L | +21.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 79c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.72 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x445f…229fbacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 140 | 34.3%48 W · 92 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf424…6e3ebacked No | 78c | 19.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 62 | 66.1%41 W · 21 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f70…bee9backed Yes | 62c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +252%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 78c | 13.22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 77c | 13.07$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 30°C or below on June 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 31°C on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 32°C on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 33°C on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 34°C on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 35°C on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 36°C on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 39°C on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 40°C or higher on June 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.