Premier League · resolved market
Will Birmingham City FC vs. Watford FC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe65d3c21cb9a29303589df8cae8c967dca0e8c43004c6b6e627e8ef20cd9048c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,938
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,815
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,938 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x20da…e704backed Yes | 9c | 3,359$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 91 | 11%10 W · 81 L | -7.4wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -46%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf515…0805backed Yes | 26c | 1,896$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 84 | 48.8%41 W · 43 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 79c | 1,174$928 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.06 | 2,661 | 45.5%1,210 W · 1,451 L | -11.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 74c | 822.08$608 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.85 | 1,204 | 50.7%610 W · 594 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d7…f9fabacked No | 73c | 719.63$528 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.6 | 118 | 46.6%55 W · 63 L | -6.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 10c | 646.49$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.11 | 1,224 | 40%490 W · 734 L | -24.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 19c | 575.07$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.39 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84b2…f1dabacked Yes | 27c | 370.37$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 101 | 39.6%40 W · 61 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9b5…7ba6backed Yes | 17c | 294.12$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Yes | 28c | 270$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.6 | 1,004 | 46.3%465 W · 539 L | +25.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3b…6598backed Yes | 9c | 150$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 25 | 0%0 W · 25 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e8f…6b61backed No | 76c | 102.93$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.58 | 152 | 38.8%59 W · 93 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66ca…6e5ebacked No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x455f…bd63backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ede…5c8dbacked Yes | 27c | 93.47$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x106b…4e8bbacked Yes | 21c | 86.43$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.15 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -3.8wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -21%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Yes | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 422 | 40.3%170 W · 252 L | -8.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x661f…e201backed Yes | 26c | 76.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Yes | 20c | 62.73$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 401 | 50.1%201 W · 200 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Yes | 25c | 52.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 541 | 28.3%153 W · 388 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6f9…fdb9backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 14cpaid | +203%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c82…05cfbacked No | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 154 | 52.6%81 W · 73 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bab…d82cbacked No | 75c | 49$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19bc…7d78backed Yes | 21c | 48.75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 126 | 46.8%59 W · 67 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f1…23eebacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 126 | 47.6%60 W · 66 L | +9.5wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +20%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7879…4345backed Yes | 26c | 39.6$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 75 | 60%45 W · 30 L | +5.2wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed No | 77c | 36.75$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 1,163 | 57.4%667 W · 496 L | +40.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed No | 74c | 34$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.84 | 356 | 61.2%218 W · 138 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0028…88a3backed No | 75c | 18.67$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.67 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1889…0714backed No | 70c | 14.7$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.41 | 168 | 63.1%106 W · 62 L | +13.3wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfcad…0a68backed No | 75c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.5 | 65 | 44.6%29 W · 36 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Birmingham City FC vs. Watford FC end in a draw?this page
- Will Birmingham City FC win on 2025-12-01?Yes won
- Will Watford FC win on 2025-12-01?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.