Premier League · resolved market
Will Watford FC win on 2025-12-01?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xda44a00e531df25d06dd4803eea5ef3f560d6547a8a2ddae999c6ac315b526d2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $63,510
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $69,466
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $63,510 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x20da…e704backed Yes | 10c | 9,746$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000.49 | 91 | 11%10 W · 81 L | -7.4wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -46%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 22c | 6,443$1,428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,428.25 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 22c | 5,839$1,268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,267.59 | 1,212 | 41.7%505 W · 707 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f62…92e8backed No | 78c | 5,618$4,382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,235.96 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 74cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Yes | 22c | 4,262$927 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$926.95 | 1,146 | 42.8%490 W · 656 L | -8.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Yes | 19c | 2,290$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$435.09 | 1,004 | 46.3%465 W · 539 L | +25.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 78c | 2,000$1,560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440 | 1,272 | 50.4%641 W · 631 L | -53.9wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde17…68d2backed No | 78c | 1,875$1,462 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$412.49 | 79 | 63.3%50 W · 29 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19bc…7d78backed Yes | 11c | 1,489$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.31 | 126 | 46.8%59 W · 67 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c9…b445backed Yes | 2c | 1,276$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.92 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +3.2wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77e2…4293backed Yes | 18c | 1,243$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.74 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3b…6598backed Yes | 1c | 999.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 25 | 0%0 W · 25 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x057a…3bacbacked Yes | 19c | 997.91$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.6 | 292 | 53.4%156 W · 136 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +30%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 10c | 879.78$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.35 | 1,224 | 40%490 W · 734 L | -24.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb70…0785backed Yes | 18c | 737$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Yes | 23c | 705.64$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.89 | 401 | 50.1%201 W · 200 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1be0…dc27backed Yes | 21c | 476.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | -5.9wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -35%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4537…491dbacked Yes | 21c | 476.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c82…b56bbacked Yes | 22c | 454.55$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 95 | 49.5%47 W · 48 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Yes | 19c | 442.49$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.95 | 262 | 29.8%78 W · 184 L | +10.2wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe523…9b1fbacked Yes | 18c | 426$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.68 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb392…28a5backed Yes | 10c | 420.83$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 16cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1677…1126backed No | 77c | 363.99$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.72 | 420 | 48.6%204 W · 216 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x877e…d958backed No | 78c | 300$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd88e…ef1bbacked Yes | 11c | 283.88$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.47 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 79c | 223.13$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.56 | 845 | 49%414 W · 431 L | -9.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ee…fb4fbacked Yes | 23c | 217.39$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3238…1521backed Yes | 20c | 200$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.57 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +2.7wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed No | 79c | 167.6$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.53 | 1,006 | 46.6%469 W · 537 L | -20.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b6…df1bbacked Yes | 19c | 143.53$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.27 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa26…c10abacked Yes | 23c | 130.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb04…3ce1backed No | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 161 | 60.9%98 W · 63 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61c8…72acbacked Yes | 21c | 121.49$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Yes | 23c | 108.7$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 327 | 37.6%123 W · 204 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79df…1661backed Yes | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 297 | 35.4%105 W · 192 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddca…239abacked Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 60 | 33.3%20 W · 40 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6aa…8882backed Yes | 21c | 94.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 98 | 28.6%28 W · 70 L | +5.1wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f66…2ad8backed Yes | 21c | 92.38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Yes | 18c | 61.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 370 | 36.2%134 W · 236 L | -18.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b74…b58fbacked No | 80c | 60$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 20 | 80%16 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 73cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 541 | 28.3%153 W · 388 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4912…09ddbacked Yes | 24c | 42.03$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9930…2afcbacked No | 78c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 19 | 84.2%16 W · 3 L | +4.1wins | +0.21per pick | 63cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5e8a…5ba0backed No | 79c | 13.61$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x490e…6ea7backed No | 80c | 13.23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.65 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae91…0f69backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 52 | 53.8%28 W · 24 L | -5.5wins | -0.11per pick | 64cpaid | -20%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Watford FC win on 2025-12-01?this page
- Will Birmingham City FC vs. Watford FC end in a draw?No won
- Will Birmingham City FC win on 2025-12-01?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.