TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xa9b6…df1b

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
47
Categories scored
8
Categories below 50
6

Best Category: Champions League, grading 52 out of 100 (+0.02 per pick).

Best Category Champions League at 52 out of 100; worst La Liga at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Dec 30, 2025, EST2133.3%7 W · 14 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-23.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Premier League — the 21 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2025-12-30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST-100%-$12.42
Will Cardiff City FC win on 2025-12-16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 16, 2025, EST-100%-$10.62
Will Manchester United FC win on 2025-12-15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 15, 2025, EST-100%-$10.33
Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-12-03?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 8, 2025, EST+132.6%+$13.67
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2025-12-06?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 6, 2025, EST-100%-$21
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2025-12-03?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 3, 2025, EST-100%-$65.36
Will Newcastle win on 2025-12-02?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST-100%-$24.24
Will Bournemouth win on 2025-12-02?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST-100%-$40
Will Watford FC win on 2025-12-01?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$27.27
Will Arsenal win on 2025-11-30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 30, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Will Liverpool win on 2025-11-30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 30, 2025, EST+78.6%+$23.57
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2025-11-29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 29, 2025, EST+212.5%+$63.75
Will Manchester United win on 2025-11-24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$132Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 24, 2025, EST-100%-$131.97
Will Aston Villa win on 2025-11-23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 23, 2025, EST+156.4%+$31.28
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2025-11-22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2025, EST-100%-$40
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$53Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2025, EST+88.7%+$47.35
Will Aston Villa win on 2025-11-09?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 9, 2025, EST+138.1%+$24.86
Will Liverpool win on 2025-10-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$36.82
Will Manchester United win on 2025-10-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2025, EDT+104.1%+$36.43
Will West Ham win on 2025-10-24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Will Liverpool win on 2025-09-27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 27, 2025, EDT-100%-$15
All 21 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jan 10, 2026, EST1020%2 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick29cpaid-28.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
NBA — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Raptors vs. Celticsbacked Raptors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST-100%-$12
Mavericks vs. Trail Blazersbacked Mavericks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST-100%-$11.25
Magic vs. Raptorsbacked Raptors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST+226.3%+$29.42
Celtics vs. Trail Blazersbacked Trail Blazers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2025, EST+290.5%+$116.29
Rockets vs. Clippersbacked Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 24, 2025, EST-100%-$16.57
Knicks vs. Timberwolvesbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 24, 2025, EST-100%-$10.58
Magic vs. Warriorsbacked Magic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2025, EST-100%-$14.58
Spurs vs. Knicksbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 17, 2025, EST-100%-$20.36
Suns vs. Thunderbacked Suns · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$16.99
Knicks vs. Raptorsbacked Raptors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$36
All 10 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved Dec 18, 2025, EST616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.18per pick35cpaid-62.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
La Liga — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Champions League Inactivelast resolved Dec 9, 2025, EST540%2 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.11per pick29cpaid+134.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Champions League — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ligue 1 Inactivelast resolved Oct 26, 2025, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+21.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Ligue 1 — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ligue 1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2025-10-26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$48Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 26, 2025, EDT+143.2%+$68.32
Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2025-10-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$25
All 2 picks, newest first.
Serie A Inactivelast resolved Oct 28, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Serie A — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will AC Milan win on 2025-10-28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$36.41
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Dec 29, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Egypt win on 2025-12-29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 29, 2025, EST-100%-$20.37
All 1 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Dec 9, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
NFL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Eagles vs. Chargersbacked Eagles · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST-100%-$34.12
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.