Premier League · resolved market
Will Cardiff City FC win on 2025-12-16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5a2946d7e4fbfaa60eb21d1c97a6167b337aa536b6e4f5f5665b0ddff41d7755
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $122,002
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $116,280
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $122,002 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa9e6…025bbacked Yes | 15c | 40,000$6,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,999.99 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48fe…b2b6backed Yes | 14c | 10,000$1,437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,436.62 | 98 | 45.9%45 W · 53 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Yes | 9c | 8,297$786 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$785.71 | 98 | 49%48 W · 50 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd538…317cbacked Yes | 14c | 7,558$1,045 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,045.32 | 221 | 25.8%57 W · 164 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3256…830cbacked Yes | 6c | 5,200$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 233 | 25.8%60 W · 173 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Yes | 9c | 2,867$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.37 | 262 | 29.8%78 W · 184 L | +10.2wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1568…c958backed Yes | 13c | 2,682$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd2…a1fdbacked Yes | 12c | 2,400$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd94…6b1ebacked Yes | 3c | 1,873$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.76 | 45 | 26.7%12 W · 33 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1862…9f15backed Yes | 15c | 806.07$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.91 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42b5…0dd9backed Yes | 8c | 765.07$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.73 | 239 | 20.9%50 W · 189 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe49…9c28backed Yes | 14c | 670.19$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.83 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 10c | 617.88$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.34 | 1,224 | 40%490 W · 734 L | -24.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9776…fc56backed Yes | 16c | 526.73$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.54 | 80 | 40%32 W · 48 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5942…5641backed Yes | 12c | 500$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 50 | 34%17 W · 33 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa354…b85fbacked Yes | 12c | 449.2$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.75 | 241 | 58.1%140 W · 101 L | +34.1wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xde77…8cd3backed Yes | 14c | 446.7$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9792…9212backed Yes | 14c | 426.42$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.64 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Yes | 8c | 378.43$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.08 | 162 | 38.3%62 W · 100 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde57…1454backed Yes | 13c | 300$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x216f…9b1ebacked Yes | 11c | 288$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.78 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa40d…f4d0backed Yes | 14c | 282.23$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x693c…a7edbacked Yes | 15c | 266.67$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 61 | 41%25 W · 36 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bef…f04ebacked Yes | 10c | 225.34$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.21 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44a1…bd21backed Yes | 11c | 212.12$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.33 | 85 | 31.8%27 W · 58 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc380…d34abacked Yes | 11c | 207.82$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.86 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a75…e444backed Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +6.1wins | +0.16per pick | 36cpaid | +100.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5351…a045backed Yes | 11c | 194$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.76 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f40…600dbacked Yes | 14c | 193.81$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.76 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06e6…87e6backed Yes | 14c | 155$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.97 | 119 | 45.4%54 W · 65 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x376d…9b48backed Yes | 12c | 150$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f45…5e8fbacked Yes | 14c | 150$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +45.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38f8…95c0backed Yes | 12c | 150$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 133 | 37.6%50 W · 83 L | -8.2wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb392…28a5backed Yes | 14c | 128.57$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 16cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9b…829ebacked Yes | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 162 | 36.4%59 W · 103 L | -13.2wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x099a…9db2backed Yes | 13c | 115.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.9wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4669…785ebacked Yes | 11c | 106$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9270…7c9ebacked Yes | 13c | 104.18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.54 | 63 | 50.8%32 W · 31 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8a3…a380backed Yes | 12c | 101$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c7c…31fdbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 440 | 36.8%162 W · 278 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d30…2645backed Yes | 12c | 99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa521…4599backed Yes | 12c | 89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a26…5cb2backed Yes | 15c | 80$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -3.8wins | -0.21per pick | 49cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b6…df1bbacked Yes | 14c | 75.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Cardiff City FC win on 2025-12-16?this page
- Will Cardiff City FC vs. Chelsea FC end in a draw?No won
- Will Chelsea FC win on 2025-12-16?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.