Premier League · resolved market
Will Cardiff City FC vs. Chelsea FC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4a841f80bd457ef29012ea679990e69667d0ed1f7e5f2a125223de364358e664
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $51,250
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,988
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $51,250 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 77c | 15,135$11,712 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,422.96 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48fe…b2b6backed Yes | 23c | 9,999$2,296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,296.18 | 98 | 45.9%45 W · 53 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a26…1851backed Yes | 25c | 4,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 196 | 52%102 W · 94 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 30c | 3,615$1,067 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,066.8 | 4,744 | 41.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed No | 79c | 1,331$1,049 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.53 | 401 | 50.1%201 W · 200 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3256…830cbacked Yes | 15c | 1,328$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.2 | 233 | 25.8%60 W · 173 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2575…bf1ebacked Yes | 19c | 1,263$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 73 | 32.9%24 W · 49 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x606d…1aafbacked Yes | 19c | 1,263$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc079…8accbacked Yes | 19c | 1,085$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.2 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc5…5db0backed Yes | 19c | 1,053$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 45c | 829.97$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.82 | 1,224 | 40%490 W · 734 L | -24.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Yes | 15c | 787.21$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.22 | 262 | 29.8%78 W · 184 L | +10.2wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb447…a929backed Yes | 47c | 720.02$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.21 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 59cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42b5…0dd9backed Yes | 14c | 661.76$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.65 | 239 | 20.9%50 W · 189 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde77…8cd3backed Yes | 31c | 648.16$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.93 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…aa68backed Yes | 5c | 600$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74dc…cc04backed Yes | 19c | 440$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.6 | 150 | 60.7%91 W · 59 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed61…9aa3backed No | 75c | 426.8$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.29 | 306 | 66%202 W · 104 L | +57.3wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | +76.4%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…9124backed Yes | 10c | 400$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 25 | 0%0 W · 25 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa40d…f4d0backed Yes | 20c | 369.25$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.63 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc449…2239backed Yes | 3c | 362.32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…8dbebacked Yes | 30c | 320$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 66 | 36.4%24 W · 42 L | -5.6wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -23%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4a75…e444backed Yes | 13c | 311.12$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.11 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +6.1wins | +0.16per pick | 36cpaid | +100.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed No | 46c | 302.78$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.5 | 162 | 38.3%62 W · 100 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d30…2645backed Yes | 18c | 284$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.05 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2387…adadbacked Yes | 17c | 281.29$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 82 | 29.3%24 W · 58 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdebb…eedbbacked Yes | 22c | 260$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.8 | 171 | 53.8%92 W · 79 L | +10.0wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 16c | 248.6$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.88 | 1,212 | 41.7%505 W · 707 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 80c | 232.25$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.45 | 2,212 | 49.3%1,091 W · 1,121 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4aff…c91bbacked Yes | 17c | 224$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.08 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b5…c106backed Yes | 17c | 211$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa99f…9c1ebacked Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 54 | 3.7%2 W · 52 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 9cpaid | -75.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a51…bde9backed Yes | 18c | 194.44$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32d6…844bbacked Yes | 18c | 188$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.84 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb82d…5d1ebacked Yes | 18c | 185$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.3 | 44 | 40.9%18 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa5f…3de3backed Yes | 17c | 184$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.28 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44a1…bd21backed Yes | 17c | 173.38$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.99 | 85 | 31.8%27 W · 58 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8918…8824backed Yes | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 71cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Yes | 14c | 149.91$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 331 | 24.2%80 W · 251 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Yes | 15c | 133$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 356 | 61.2%218 W · 138 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7d…d9dfbacked No | 73c | 131.96$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.67 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 67c | 125$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.75 | 614 | 41.2%253 W · 361 L | -27.4wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfb9…65bfbacked Yes | 14c | 106.87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.29 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -26%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 110 | 48.2%53 W · 57 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0db7…5c06backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 176 | 35.8%63 W · 113 L | -12.8wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x65ea…223fbacked Yes | 16c | 93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x320f…b4a3backed Yes | 16c | 80$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc938…af43backed Yes | 18c | 75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…5ab9backed Yes | 18c | 66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ffb…4a82backed No | 68c | 58.65$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.65 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 77c | 53.62$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.34 | 891 | 52.9%471 W · 420 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…24f0backed Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10ff…5088backed No | 80c | 38.93$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.88 | 271 | 41.7%113 W · 158 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd17e…0868backed No | 59c | 37.2$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.25 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0fd…5903backed No | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a5c…b3f2backed No | 78c | 26.61$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.95 | 259 | 49.4%128 W · 131 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ba…e793backed Yes | 40c | 25.74$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 72 | 75%54 W · 18 L | +15.0wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd53e…e70cbacked No | 77c | 18.65$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Cardiff City FC vs. Chelsea FC end in a draw?this page
- Will Cardiff City FC win on 2025-12-16?No won
- Will Chelsea FC win on 2025-12-16?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.