Bundesliga · resolved market
Will 1. FC Nürnberg vs. FC Schalke 04 end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe6670937cbda759908093aa6b4a4b93e5a802cb04252c4414370fea1cef7e78c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,741
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,333
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,741 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3f3a…e8fdbacked No | 74c | 16,308$12,060 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,248.65 | 72 | 55.6%40 W · 32 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 26c | 4,851$1,268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,268 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc686…5a55backed Yes | 11c | 4,700$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 241 | 32%77 W · 164 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 26c | 2,802$728 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$728.34 | 698 | 51.9%362 W · 336 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee19…555ebacked Yes | 25c | 2,563$641 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$640.84 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Yes | 25c | 1,987$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 271 | 38.4%104 W · 167 L | -9.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Yes | 26c | 1,682$437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$437.37 | 386 | 46.9%181 W · 205 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 26c | 1,390$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358.9 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 24c | 908.43$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.79 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Yes | 26c | 889.23$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.2 | 330 | 47.3%156 W · 174 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 26c | 788$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.88 | 569 | 51.8%295 W · 274 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Yes | 26c | 562$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.12 | 420 | 46.4%195 W · 225 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99f4…6e5dbacked Yes | 23c | 434.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Yes | 26c | 320.64$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.37 | 264 | 45.5%120 W · 144 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 7c | 300$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 65 | 32.3%21 W · 44 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Yes | 25c | 289$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.25 | 157 | 47.1%74 W · 83 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37a0…8423backed Yes | 26c | 192.31$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Yes | 27c | 168.74$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.56 | 208 | 45.7%95 W · 113 L | -16.2wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Yes | 26c | 92$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.92 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b67…829fbacked Yes | 25c | 76.66$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.35 | 69 | 37.7%26 W · 43 L | -6.3wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Yes | 26c | 60.23$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 106 | 47.2%50 W · 56 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked No | 73c | 60$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 31 | 67.7%21 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 74c | 50.25$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.07 | 624 | 52.6%328 W · 296 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 275 | 54.9%151 W · 124 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 78c | 31.14$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.85 | 337 | 37.4%126 W · 211 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea65…d27dbacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 1. FC Nürnberg vs. FC Schalke 04 end in a draw?this page
- Will 1. FC Nürnberg win on 2026-05-09?Yes won
- Will FC Schalke 04 win on 2026-05-09?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.