Bundesliga · resolved market
Will 1. FC Nürnberg win on 2026-05-09?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3ce5344a0d60908d8cd290d7ffc78bd036bba991277ccd374d9dbe84ecd425d0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,246
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,138
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,246 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8987…02f3backed Yes | 41c | 3,650$1,493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,156.59 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 12c | 2,726$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.37 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 60c | 1,583$949 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$948.64 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89bd…3f72backed No | 53c | 1,575$835 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$834.64 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 45c | 1,571$712 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$859.05 | 698 | 51.9%362 W · 336 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e52…00f5backed No | 16c | 1,500$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 68 | 44.1%30 W · 38 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +46%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa96f…0cd0backed Yes | 49c | 1,396$684 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$711.92 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90e4…58eabacked No | 22c | 991.1$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.71 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38f1…9ff1backed No | 42c | 666$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.72 | 49 | 65.3%32 W · 17 L | +4.1wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed No | 61c | 656.19$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.33 | 208 | 45.7%95 W · 113 L | -16.2wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x660d…56acbacked Yes | 48c | 519.37$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.07 | 90 | 43.3%39 W · 51 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf98c…043ebacked No | 56c | 465$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.34 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.42per pick | 67cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeaac…d71dbacked No | 52c | 428.37$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.75 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 77c | 348.81$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.12 | 491 | 43.2%212 W · 279 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 29c | 305.25$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.17 | 65 | 32.3%21 W · 44 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…5657backed Yes | 39c | 294.4$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.58 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 60c | 282.52$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.51 | 569 | 51.8%295 W · 274 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 9c | 276.38$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.16 | 407 | 44.5%181 W · 226 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x222b…1a8dbacked No | 26c | 234.44$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.51 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x170e…aa0dbacked Yes | 38c | 197.37$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.37 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked No | 55c | 194.61$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.18 | 271 | 38.4%104 W · 167 L | -9.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f56…348abacked No | 14c | 193.59$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.82 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Yes | 43c | 192.6$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.47 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +66.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Yes | 43c | 181.58$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.66 | 330 | 47.3%156 W · 174 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d60…453dbacked No | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | -7.5wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 60c | 160.36$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.91 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85d8…3cbebacked No | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 105 | 54.3%57 W · 48 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 78c | 150.81$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.69 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f3…999fbacked Yes | 40c | 150$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 115 | 39.1%45 W · 70 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55e7…4fb9backed Yes | 40c | 132.3$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.38 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 59c | 127.04$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.39 | 420 | 46.4%195 W · 225 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed No | 59c | 126.75$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.78 | 531 | 40.7%216 W · 315 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed No | 44c | 126.07$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.07 | 264 | 45.5%120 W · 144 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x489d…f6e3backed Yes | 47c | 119.99$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.59 | 163 | 43.6%71 W · 92 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa36f…180bbacked No | 60c | 117.03$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6259…c451backed Yes | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3a…e8fdbacked No | 39c | 91.95$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.86 | 72 | 55.6%40 W · 32 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98c1…3d1ebacked No | 52c | 85.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.35per pick | 55cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 75c | 85$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.05 | 640 | 43.9%281 W · 359 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3db…97a6backed Yes | 39c | 76.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.5 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d27…c38cbacked Yes | 43c | 69.38$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.89 | 34 | 64.7%22 W · 12 L | +4.4wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3946…b565backed No | 62c | 64.52$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Yes | 48c | 62.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.76 | 72 | 47.2%34 W · 38 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52ed…8db7backed No | 54c | 62.67$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.84 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Yes | 46c | 61.54$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.23 | 636 | 45.1%287 W · 349 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9df2…99f5backed Yes | 41c | 60.97$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.97 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf463…476ebacked Yes | 46c | 60.5$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.67 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.40per pick | 65cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x94a5…4eb8backed Yes | 44c | 60$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Yes | 43c | 59.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.19 | 202 | 51%103 W · 99 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed No | 60c | 57.32$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.4 | 174 | 56.9%99 W · 75 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Yes | 47c | 55$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.15 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35d1…1f70backed No | 37c | 53.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.63 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Yes | 61c | 50.85$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.83 | 77 | 50.6%39 W · 38 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 61c | 50.76$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.96 | 624 | 52.6%328 W · 296 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d6a…4adabacked Yes | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcca0…3738backed Yes | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x381e…ca9dbacked Yes | 38c | 39.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +163.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf133…4811backed Yes | 41c | 37.8$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.34 | 45 | 28.9%13 W · 32 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Yes | 79c | 37.8$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.82 | 395 | 58.7%232 W · 163 L | +27.4wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b1…daa0backed No | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeebb…deffbacked Yes | 45c | 33.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.33 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Yes | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 160 | 46.9%75 W · 85 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d6…b2a6backed No | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5213…6a35backed No | 58c | 31.9$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.35 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…7f6cbacked No | 32c | 31.73$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -48%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa081…77e6backed Yes | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +67%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Yes | 74c | 28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.36 | 71 | 36.6%26 W · 45 L | -7.6wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…3d9dbacked No | 37c | 27.57$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…ea66backed Yes | 41c | 26.66$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.73 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a25…8055backed Yes | 66c | 26.51$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.01 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed Yes | 42c | 26.19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.19 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.14per pick | 37cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Yes | 76c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.98 | 222 | 45.9%102 W · 120 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16e5…f7a7backed No | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe941…a496backed Yes | 54c | 23.35$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.76 | 73 | 65.8%48 W · 25 L | +8.5wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa923…6704backed No | 59c | 20.81$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.28 | 67 | 46.3%31 W · 36 L | -6.6wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 1. FC Nürnberg win on 2026-05-09?this page
- Will 1. FC Nürnberg vs. FC Schalke 04 end in a draw?No won
- Will FC Schalke 04 win on 2026-05-09?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.