Bundesliga · resolved market
Will FC Schalke 04 win on 2026-05-09?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x37cc8f271c7c22928a9d8a4ba3138a9040f5b66a0f8e373c4c9c355ec48a5a94
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $47,134
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $53,191
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,134 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4871…0742backed Yes | 8c | 5,617$443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$442.61 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 1c | 4,617$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.23 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 2c | 3,062$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.49 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0075…5f10backed Yes | 18c | 3,000$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$539.99 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc686…5a55backed Yes | 19c | 1,579$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 241 | 32%77 W · 164 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e52…00f5backed Yes | 5c | 1,550$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.26 | 68 | 44.1%30 W · 38 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +46%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 66c | 1,429$944 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$484.69 | 698 | 51.9%362 W · 336 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3a…e8fdbacked Yes | 34c | 1,250$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$424.95 | 72 | 55.6%40 W · 32 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d4a…e7cabacked No | 64c | 781.25$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7841…7273backed Yes | 30c | 749.98$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | -5.1wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 6c | 728$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.68 | 491 | 43.2%212 W · 279 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14c2…7d55backed Yes | 3c | 669.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.09 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +25%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed No | 78c | 508.57$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.98 | 640 | 43.9%281 W · 359 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 64c | 413.89$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149 | 386 | 46.9%181 W · 205 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bcc…e06fbacked Yes | 36c | 413.89$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6925…d76dbacked Yes | 5c | 400$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 78c | 391.98$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.89 | 407 | 44.5%181 W · 226 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe524…d34fbacked Yes | 4c | 354.47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.18 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee19…555ebacked No | 65c | 306.26$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.19 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f84…67efbacked Yes | 17c | 300$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 147 | 26.5%39 W · 108 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf38c…d9f2backed Yes | 16c | 299.99$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 117 | 48.7%57 W · 60 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…5657backed Yes | 34c | 294.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.19 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc42b…fb39backed Yes | 35c | 279.11$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.69 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 64c | 254.37$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.57 | 569 | 51.8%295 W · 274 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 32c | 246.15$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.47 | 65 | 32.3%21 W · 44 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Yes | 18c | 222.92$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 190 | 55.3%105 W · 85 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3045…8f78backed No | 70c | 214.84$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.84 | 175 | 49.1%86 W · 89 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…1639backed Yes | 33c | 206.06$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | -4.1wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 67c | 203.37$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.21 | 420 | 46.4%195 W · 225 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Yes | 30c | 181.59$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.26 | 330 | 47.3%156 W · 174 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…2d14backed No | 70c | 181.52$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.06 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…57afbacked Yes | 33c | 151.52$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…0dfebacked Yes | 19c | 131.58$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.7wins | +0.27per pick | 43cpaid | +105.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7242…ac6fbacked Yes | 18c | 119.05$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.96 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a14…7720backed Yes | 27c | 116.46$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed No | 66c | 114.16$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.2 | 531 | 40.7%216 W · 315 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2716…a6f4backed Yes | 36c | 111.11$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 69c | 100.49$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.15 | 624 | 52.6%328 W · 296 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7d2…3287backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 26cpaid | +59.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16fe…9496backed Yes | 17c | 94.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.12 | 158 | 54.4%86 W · 72 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeaac…d71dbacked No | 64c | 92.88$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.44 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x660d…56acbacked Yes | 32c | 86.55$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.7 | 90 | 43.3%39 W · 51 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe941…a496backed No | 77c | 85.35$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.23 | 73 | 65.8%48 W · 25 L | +8.5wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 71c | 70.01$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.54 | 398 | 57.5%229 W · 169 L | +20.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x94a5…4eb8backed Yes | 36c | 70$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…1302backed Yes | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed No | 70c | 60$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 202 | 51%103 W · 99 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd92e…fcbdbacked Yes | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 47cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6e…9bc5backed No | 64c | 50.48$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.17 | 54 | 68.5%37 W · 17 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Yes | 31c | 46.68$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 208 | 45.7%95 W · 113 L | -16.2wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xea87…8066backed Yes | 35c | 45.71$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9043…af14backed Yes | 33c | 45.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee11…19a9backed No | 66c | 45.45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.45 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fc…38d5backed Yes | 36c | 41.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a91…7ebabacked Yes | 37c | 40.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 57 | 68.4%39 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d27…c38cbacked No | 70c | 38.01$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.22 | 34 | 64.7%22 W · 12 L | +4.4wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x20bf…2be9backed Yes | 33c | 31$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x234b…f36dbacked No | 66c | 29.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.19 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaedd…ad5bbacked No | 68c | 19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.08 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc942…a8a1backed No | 74c | 13.56$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.53 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 73cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC Schalke 04 win on 2026-05-09?this page
- Will 1. FC Nürnberg vs. FC Schalke 04 end in a draw?No won
- Will 1. FC Nürnberg win on 2026-05-09?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.