MLB · resolved market
Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe66b15d7abdd38a805b102324eceed922216423cf7a5c1deeeaaef1329eb505c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,820
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,926
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,820 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xde49…fe85backed Over | 51c | 12,000$6,098 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,098.23 | 484 | 51%247 W · 237 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 49c | 9,656$4,758 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,897.67 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd81e…e3d0backed Over | 48c | 2,422$1,162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,162.46 | 322 | 51.6%166 W · 156 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 49c | 2,083$1,021 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,062.57 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 52c | 2,000$1,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$960 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e94…5ba1backed Over | 47c | 962$452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$452.14 | 469 | 49%230 W · 239 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeef6…cd4cbacked Under | 53c | 662$351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.14 | 556 | 53.4%297 W · 259 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 47c | 456.38$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.5 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 52c | 447$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.04 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Over | 47c | 295.39$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.83 | 680 | 53.2%362 W · 318 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 58c | 264.05$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.7 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Under | 52c | 195$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.6 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Over | 45c | 186.5$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.05 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Under | 42c | 146.5$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.99 | 1,043 | 49%511 W · 532 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe426…f4ffbacked Under | 53c | 140.09$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.84 | 119 | 56.3%67 W · 52 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 68c | 110.18$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.1 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc72…cd13backed Under | 55c | 99$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.55 | 344 | 43.9%151 W · 193 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bef…5f5dbacked Under | 50c | 96.23$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.12 | 101 | 54.5%55 W · 46 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Under | 56c | 87.5$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 674 | 53%357 W · 317 L | +28.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Over | 27c | 84.49$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.01 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0009…5497backed Over | 50c | 80.8$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.4 | 295 | 49.8%147 W · 148 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Under | 50c | 69.95$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.68 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed Under | 53c | 64.53$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.63 | 528 | 52.1%275 W · 253 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2077…8161backed Under | 53c | 60.37$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.37 | 342 | 55.3%189 W · 153 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 44c | 60$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.81 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe481…d138backed Under | 53c | 56$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 882 | 47.7%421 W · 461 L | +3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Under | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Under | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 71c | 44.08$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.68 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 52c | 32.15$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.43 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8a5…2ce1backed Under | 53c | 31.75$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 52c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa8…0b19backed Under | 49c | 21.02$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.72 | 405 | 54.8%222 W · 183 L | +17.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Under | 72c | 19.96$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.59 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Under | 78c | 17.95$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.89 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd62…344abacked Under | 69c | 15.94$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5this page
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis CardinalsSt. Louis Cardinals won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 6.5Under won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis CardinalsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.