NFL · resolved market
Will the Colts beat the Bears by 2 or more points?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe67cf16e118bdea8dbd862d89d1504847230ff4a4b73fa2301cba6cbb5cd6222
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Coltsof Colts, Bears
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,913
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,913
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,913 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc8c8…7407backed Bears | 54c | 1,500$810 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$810 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +72.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f47…af93backed Colts | 50c | 1,255$627 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$627.5 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9fe…366bbacked Colts | 49c | 1,020$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520.41 | 362 | 46.7%169 W · 193 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Colts | 51c | 1,000$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490 | 397 | 54.4%216 W · 181 L | +26.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x88ca…84acbacked Bears | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbd…af92backed Bears | 50c | 559.75$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.87 | 186 | 45.7%85 W · 101 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb49…97a0backed Bears | 52c | 300.71$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.37 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -19%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b7…ee3cbacked Colts | 49c | 254.99$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.6 | 118 | 39%46 W · 72 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2137…0677backed Colts | 46c | 218.2$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.83 | 204 | 40.7%83 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -17%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3832…35e1backed Bears | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 164 | 51.2%84 W · 80 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea3…3808backed Bears | 52c | 182.69$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc809…b4b2backed Colts | 49c | 181.63$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.63 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc465…fcfbbacked Colts | 49c | 61.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.22 | 207 | 58%120 W · 87 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Colts beat the Bears by 2 or more points?this page
- Will the 49ers beat the Rams by 7 or more points?Rams won
- Will the Browns beat the Giants by 7 or more points?Giants won
- Will the Buccaneers beat the Broncos by 7 or more points?Broncos won
- Will the Chargers beat the Steelers by 2 or more points?Steelers won
- Will the Lions beat the Cardinals by 3 or more points?Lions won
- Will the Raiders beat the Panthers by 7 or more points?Panthers won
- Will the Ravens beat the Cowboys by 2 or more points?Ravens won
- Will the Saints beat the Eagles by 3 or more points?Eagles won
- Will the Seahawks beat the Dolphins by 5 or more points?Seahawks won
- Will the Texans beat the Vikings by 3 or more points?Vikings won
- Will the Titans beat the Packers by 3 or more points?Packers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.