NFL · resolved market
Will the 49ers beat the Rams by 7 or more points?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd657849e19a6e4fda585aa965ea0ce83bfeaa6416d15ebdf0c4350a78c30896f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Ramsof 49ers, Rams
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,077
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,077
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,077 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf9fe…366bbacked Rams | 50c | 1,582$791 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$791 | 362 | 46.7%169 W · 193 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f47…af93backed Rams | 51c | 1,302$663 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$638.78 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2137…0677backed 49ers | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 204 | 40.7%83 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -17%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88ca…84acbacked 49ers | 49c | 1,000$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc8…39efbacked 49ers | 50c | 943.39$472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$471.7 | 142 | 48.6%69 W · 73 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbd…af92backed 49ers | 50c | 901.21$451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450.61 | 186 | 45.7%85 W · 101 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc9c…d5c5backed Rams | 50c | 600$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77cf…0e71backed 49ers | 50c | 330$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa03b…c3f1backed Rams | 50c | 250$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed 49ers | 50c | 222$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 104 | 42.3%44 W · 60 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a91…65a6backed 49ers | 52c | 192.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.98 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b7…ee3cbacked 49ers | 49c | 67.01$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.84 | 118 | 39%46 W · 72 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc465…fcfbbacked 49ers | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 207 | 58%120 W · 87 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8628…27c2backed Rams | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02a1…3f08backed 49ers | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 129 | 51.9%67 W · 62 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed Rams | 49c | 39.22$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 228 | 38.6%88 W · 140 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the 49ers beat the Rams by 7 or more points?this page
- Will the Browns beat the Giants by 7 or more points?Giants won
- Will the Buccaneers beat the Broncos by 7 or more points?Broncos won
- Will the Chargers beat the Steelers by 2 or more points?Steelers won
- Will the Colts beat the Bears by 2 or more points?Colts won
- Will the Lions beat the Cardinals by 3 or more points?Lions won
- Will the Raiders beat the Panthers by 7 or more points?Panthers won
- Will the Ravens beat the Cowboys by 2 or more points?Ravens won
- Will the Saints beat the Eagles by 3 or more points?Eagles won
- Will the Seahawks beat the Dolphins by 5 or more points?Seahawks won
- Will the Texans beat the Vikings by 3 or more points?Vikings won
- Will the Titans beat the Packers by 3 or more points?Packers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.