Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 30-31°F on January 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe6a050bb9d9ba9dace2d5afe55cb0658382c38ba16e8dd9f9eadce4e4ab9e1de
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,653
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,276
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,653 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8bad…b337backed No | 1c | 4,691$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.81 | 323 | 10.5%34 W · 289 L | +15.6wins | +0.05per pick | 6cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed No | 1c | 4,517$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.64 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed No | 2c | 2,200$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc981…a75dbacked No | 1c | 2,037$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.93 | 384 | 10.7%41 W · 343 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +103.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab07…e6f1backed No | 3c | 700$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 474 | 17.9%85 W · 389 L | +13.3wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb905…1640backed Yes | 58c | 432$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.86 | 87 | 47.1%41 W · 46 L | -8.7wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x584e…090fbacked Yes | 72c | 307.25$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.11 | 478 | 34.3%164 W · 314 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf216…4844backed Yes | 78c | 233.85$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.16 | 272 | 46.3%126 W · 146 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e22…67b6backed Yes | 55c | 209.06$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.53 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.19per pick | 64cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 72 | 44.4%32 W · 40 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2818…5369backed Yes | 56c | 179.26$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.26 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08cf…8cbcbacked Yes | 29c | 130.13$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.2 | 107 | 51.4%55 W · 52 L | +9.2wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7e…1757backed Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71 | 113 | 32.7%37 W · 76 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe62e…917cbacked Yes | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 155 | 58.7%91 W · 64 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 41c | 76.13$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.12 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b29…f288backed No | 56c | 75.35$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.94 | 100 | 44%44 W · 56 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe523…09ddbacked No | 51c | 62.48$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.86 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05c8…092abacked Yes | 49c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.6 | 361 | 23%83 W · 278 L | +15.0wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3de5…c157backed Yes | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.1 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -4.0wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x70f7…7ea9backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdcd…3e9cbacked Yes | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 833 | 32.1%267 W · 566 L | +24.4wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 50c | 41.15$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.76 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd1…0a73backed Yes | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x142c…9ee5backed No | 56c | 30.33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.86 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb61d…b3acbacked Yes | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 28 | 89.3%25 W · 3 L | +5.7wins | +0.20per pick | 69cpaid | +36%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa7ab…68cdbacked No | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3f…04e4backed Yes | 55c | 21.95$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.88 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 30-31°F on January 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 27°F or below on January 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 38°F or higher on January 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 28-29°F on January 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 32-33°F on January 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 34-35°F on January 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 36-37°F on January 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.