Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Pipsqueak+4 vs L1ga Team - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe6a0f79d28dc0ed8d81dd818f9bb105297a421ad6663450a3dcb844701cc8564
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- L1ga Teamof Pipsqueak+4, L1ga Team
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,276
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,276 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd06c…cdafbacked L1ga Team | 47c | 2,595$1,210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,385.28 | 1,186 | 43.2%512 W · 674 L | +42.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5a…bf71backed Pipsqueak+4 | 31c | 1,169$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358.84 | 466 | 49.8%232 W · 234 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Pipsqueak+4 | 53c | 1,137$608 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$608.3 | 738 | 41.7%308 W · 430 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb3…76a9backed Pipsqueak+4 | 38c | 998.24$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382.63 | 517 | 51.3%265 W · 252 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Pipsqueak+4 | 32c | 963.96$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.19 | 1,164 | 47.2%549 W · 615 L | -29.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe491…ccd1backed Pipsqueak+4 | 23c | 899.99$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.3 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb64c…393dbacked Pipsqueak+4 | 2c | 850.01$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 293 | 50.2%147 W · 146 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b46…81f2backed Pipsqueak+4 | 46c | 600$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.16per pick | 42cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f19…8ce4backed L1ga Team | 53c | 600$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c20…41b3backed Pipsqueak+4 | 8c | 499.36$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 173 | 23.1%40 W · 133 L | -11.7wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3091…748dbacked Pipsqueak+4 | 6c | 427.8$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.43 | 189 | 23.8%45 W · 144 L | -13.7wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f5…3d04backed L1ga Team | 71c | 421.8$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.8 | 510 | 49%250 W · 260 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7627…4404backed L1ga Team | 32c | 364.78$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.63 | 148 | 32.4%48 W · 100 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b84…2f73backed L1ga Team | 62c | 323.01$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.01 | 116 | 48.3%56 W · 60 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e63…9e38backed L1ga Team | 55c | 308.22$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.7 | 345 | 61.2%211 W · 134 L | +17.7wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x688e…148dbacked L1ga Team | 70c | 285.72$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.72 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Pipsqueak+4 | 64c | 271.23$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.71 | 735 | 54.7%402 W · 333 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Pipsqueak+4 | 44c | 268.19$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.28 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ee3…7c36backed L1ga Team | 38c | 260.49$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.49 | 241 | 31.5%76 W · 165 L | -11.2wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedce…412ebacked Pipsqueak+4 | 9c | 250.12$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.12 | 47 | 19.1%9 W · 38 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…6da6backed Pipsqueak+4 | 45c | 244.44$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 184 | 44.6%82 W · 102 L | +12.2wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed L1ga Team | 73c | 227.31$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.86 | 666 | 62.2%414 W · 252 L | +60.2wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcf0a…320abacked L1ga Team | 77c | 220.94$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.33 | 920 | 56.4%519 W · 401 L | +78.3wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb9a9…263cbacked Pipsqueak+4 | 32c | 200$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 241 | 37.3%90 W · 151 L | +9.7wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadf8…1e82backed Pipsqueak+4 | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3d…cfffbacked L1ga Team | 66c | 198.34$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.86 | 367 | 59.1%217 W · 150 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfadf…dda0backed Pipsqueak+4 | 28c | 180.66$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 292 | 45.9%134 W · 158 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3455…7ba6backed Pipsqueak+4 | 11c | 176.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ce…a57abacked L1ga Team | 59c | 170.8$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.8 | 1,202 | 59.3%713 W · 489 L | +64.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5de7…5417backed Pipsqueak+4 | 45c | 150$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 479 | 51.8%248 W · 231 L | +17.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Pipsqueak+4 | 28c | 142.55$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 410 | 37.3%153 W · 257 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4d…1cb0backed L1ga Team | 69c | 98.55$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.55 | 576 | 54.5%314 W · 262 L | +29.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed L1ga Team | 63c | 88.88$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.81 | 340 | 63.2%215 W · 125 L | +38.9wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +13%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0386…2b1abacked L1ga Team | 18c | 83.28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.29 | 305 | 43%131 W · 174 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2778…8547backed Pipsqueak+4 | 28c | 66$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x289c…79bcbacked L1ga Team | 68c | 65.28$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.68 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.24per pick | 62cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4cdb…9d70backed L1ga Team | 60c | 63.72$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.59 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed L1ga Team | 54c | 59.65$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.38 | 224 | 56.3%126 W · 98 L | +11.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Pipsqueak+4 | 36c | 57.74$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.81 | 1,272 | 45%572 W · 700 L | -40.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Pipsqueak+4 | 37c | 56.73$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.17 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff93…91bfbacked L1ga Team | 61c | 48.87$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.87 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8322…b5fbbacked L1ga Team | 62c | 38.63$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +60.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a30…9283backed Pipsqueak+4 | 59c | 34.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed L1ga Team | 37c | 32.47$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.39 | 38 | 71.1%27 W · 11 L | +8.3wins | +0.22per pick | 49cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x06d9…7cfbbacked L1ga Team | 50c | 30.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.06 | 201 | 51.2%103 W · 98 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc623…9c7dbacked L1ga Team | 67c | 20.9$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 367 | 61%224 W · 143 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…f40dbacked L1ga Team | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.75 | 447 | 71.1%318 W · 129 L | +27.1wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x38c5…0f5cbacked L1ga Team | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 582 | 50.5%294 W · 288 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe790…7df7backed Pipsqueak+4 | 78c | 16.81$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.08 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe293…d3edbacked L1ga Team | 70c | 15.59$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.7 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e47…bdbfbacked L1ga Team | 70c | 14.38$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.31 | 149 | 63.1%94 W · 55 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Pipsqueak+4 vs L1ga Team - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Pipsqueak+4 vs L1ga Team (BO3) - CCT PlayoffsL1ga Team won
- Dota 2: Pipsqueak+4 vs L1ga Team - Game 2 WinnerL1ga Team won
- Game Handicap: Pipsqueak+4 (-1.5) vs L1ga Team (+1.5)L1ga Team won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.