World Politics · resolved market
Will Samia Suluhu Hassan win the 2025 Tanzania presidential election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe6b53f4bd99cebdbf876e89e29ba837d55fd96854e61684a5bdd68f18554379f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $71,337
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $84,534
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $71,337 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbc5f…4cf1backed No | 0c | 4,220$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf66c…4ab1backed No | 1c | 2,156$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.12 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 8cpaid | +45.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed No | 19c | 1,053$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 118 | 50.8%60 W · 58 L | +29.2wins | +0.25per pick | 26cpaid | +132.4%equal weight | 73+0.20 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 2c | 863.55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.24 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e88…301cbacked No | 2c | 730$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 83 | 21.7%18 W · 65 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf515…e56bbacked No | 9c | 600$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 26cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed No | 18c | 543.7$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.8 | 482 | 24.7%119 W · 363 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54db…0174backed No | 2c | 543.69$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 196 | 23%45 W · 151 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked No | 7c | 399.95$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 186 | 28.5%53 W · 133 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed No | 15c | 300$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 380 | 23.9%91 W · 289 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe952…3f28backed No | 7c | 285.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x440d…55e6backed No | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Samia Suluhu Hassan win the 2025 Tanzania presidential election?this page
- Will Dorothy Semu win the 2025 Tanzania presidential election?No won
- Will Tundu Lissu win the 2025 Tanzania presidential election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.