Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: OG vs Tearlaments (BO1)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe6ea09227c8b2658c401780c1a0826ccb2125c9e7aea1fb4b1cbfebd88cbf3d8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- OGof OG, Tearlaments
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,601
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,489
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,601 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x58f8…dc70backed OG | 71c | 6,596$4,699 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,897.18 | 62 | 61.3%38 W · 24 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3dd…a7e0backed Tearlaments | 29c | 6,058$1,746 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,745.97 | 131 | 55%72 W · 59 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Tearlaments | 0c | 3,328$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.61 | 616 | 9.7%60 W · 556 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x419d…129abacked Tearlaments | 30c | 1,830$549 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$549 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -55%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Tearlaments | 26c | 1,517$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.41 | 894 | 40.3%360 W · 534 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a0b…0d3bbacked OG | 70c | 1,500$1,050 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe08e…1d61backed Tearlaments | 34c | 1,480$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 46 | 78.3%36 W · 10 L | +6.1wins | +0.13per pick | 65cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Tearlaments | 10c | 1,310$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.96 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde17…68d2backed Tearlaments | 16c | 1,279$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.21 | 179 | 50.3%90 W · 89 L | +14.7wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfe48…5895backed OG | 74c | 1,239$917 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.15 | 121 | 47.9%58 W · 63 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked OG | 71c | 1,169$830 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.01 | 118 | 55.1%65 W · 53 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba05…f8c0backed OG | 66c | 1,009$666 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.91 | 491 | 33.6%165 W · 326 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd161…4cc1backed OG | 72c | 1,000$720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280 | 804 | 43.9%353 W · 451 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea5…2af9backed Tearlaments | 29c | 965.52$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 50 | 78%39 W · 11 L | +7.4wins | +0.15per pick | 63cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4294…a1c8backed Tearlaments | 28c | 850$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x931f…d15dbacked Tearlaments | 28c | 699.98$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.99 | 33 | 72.7%24 W · 9 L | +3.3wins | +0.10per pick | 63cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfc59…74a0backed Tearlaments | 28c | 690$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x033e…1bb9backed Tearlaments | 12c | 641.6$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.65 | 568 | 48.8%277 W · 291 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa969…fd89backed Tearlaments | 28c | 635$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.8 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…1081backed Tearlaments | 33c | 459.9$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1d6…874abacked OG | 72c | 430$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed OG | 71c | 421.25$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.25 | 25 | 76%19 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 71cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e2…c715backed OG | 72c | 420$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Tearlaments | 27c | 410$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.7 | 605 | 42.6%258 W · 347 L | -14.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74ef…1ac6backed OG | 79c | 382.14$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.15 | 476 | 60.7%289 W · 187 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Tearlaments | 29c | 372.49$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.21 | 76 | 39.5%30 W · 46 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7a4…31e9backed OG | 72c | 370$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Tearlaments | 12c | 350$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.5 | 869 | 49%426 W · 443 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x871c…7f0abacked Tearlaments | 29c | 344.83$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 60 | 68.3%41 W · 19 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc0…699abacked Tearlaments | 14c | 330$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.2 | 641 | 23.4%150 W · 491 L | -18.6wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f60…f025backed OG | 70c | 330$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 55cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4f2…3263backed Tearlaments | 32c | 315.02$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 61 | 75.4%46 W · 15 L | +5.8wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Tearlaments | 19c | 313.51$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.05 | 84 | 11.9%10 W · 74 L | -14.1wins | -0.17per pick | 29cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x387e…4c5dbacked OG | 72c | 270$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8544…78abbacked OG | 72c | 265$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.2 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00dd…7faabacked OG | 72c | 260$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75c3…4d64backed OG | 72c | 260$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b26…c9afbacked OG | 71c | 241.9$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.15 | 142 | 51.4%73 W · 69 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…3ef7backed Tearlaments | 28c | 232.14$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x031d…db9dbacked OG | 72c | 200$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 156 | 53.2%83 W · 73 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb36…9545backed OG | 67c | 160.94$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.11 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +55.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Tearlaments | 28c | 150$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd138…7058backed OG | 74c | 135.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.14 | 115 | 51.3%59 W · 56 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x419b…6ea1backed OG | 74c | 135.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.14 | 224 | 53.1%119 W · 105 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaa3…8133backed Tearlaments | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -55%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb82b…3a09backed OG | 67c | 99.99$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 149 | 48.3%72 W · 77 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7373…3964backed OG | 69c | 99.99$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 127 | 55.1%70 W · 57 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x824d…1271backed Tearlaments | 13c | 79.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 240 | 26.7%64 W · 176 L | -30.5wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Tearlaments | 26c | 74.32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 399 | 36.8%147 W · 252 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9318…a645backed OG | 73c | 68.49$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 48 | 64.6%31 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fb…793ebacked OG | 74c | 67.57$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.57 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64e8…7819backed Tearlaments | 29c | 65.38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.94 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -2.8wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc5cc…3f0fbacked Tearlaments | 31c | 64.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 59 | 72.9%43 W · 16 L | +5.7wins | +0.10per pick | 63cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd18b…300cbacked Tearlaments | 29c | 51.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3a3…d89bbacked OG | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed OG | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 54 | 64.8%35 W · 19 L | +4.5wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf90c…f49cbacked OG | 72c | 41.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 27 | 92.6%25 W · 2 L | +6.5wins | +0.24per pick | 69cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x614b…5845backed OG | 71c | 41.13$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.93 | 58 | 74.1%43 W · 15 L | +5.2wins | +0.09per pick | 65cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9452…b685backed Tearlaments | 29c | 40.92$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 47cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a29…c0b6backed OG | 71c | 35.21$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 57 | 77.2%44 W · 13 L | +4.4wins | +0.08per pick | 69cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9904…c9b1backed OG | 72c | 34.72$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 45 | 77.8%35 W · 10 L | +4.5wins | +0.10per pick | 68cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed OG | 65c | 30.01$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x983d…933fbacked OG | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3099…d252backed OG | 79c | 23.61$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.01 | 75 | 70.7%53 W · 22 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf8…89b0backed OG | 72c | 20.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 33 | 75.8%25 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc209…7924backed OG | 78c | 19.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.23 | 507 | 57.4%291 W · 216 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcede…a538backed OG | 73c | 16.7$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.51 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.33per pick | 47cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xef05…9cdfbacked OG | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked OG | 78c | 13.09$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.88 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.