Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will Noah FA vs. AZ end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe75281ac29f7dde518fc90bccee51373dc86c3f6bcf677763638bbcfa5e36826
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,334
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,922
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,334 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16b2…aa5abacked No | 59c | 2,112$1,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$862.11 | 96 | 68.8%66 W · 30 L | +11.3wins | +0.12per pick | 57cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc840…16d6backed Yes | 4c | 1,900$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 70c | 1,810$1,275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$535.88 | 449 | 52.6%236 W · 213 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed No | 60c | 1,393$833 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$559.92 | 234 | 61.5%144 W · 90 L | +26.7wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 26c | 1,250$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.62 | 69 | 23.2%16 W · 53 L | -5.6wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -38%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb207…c751backed No | 71c | 1,000$710 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd1…18c3backed Yes | 38c | 828.17$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.86 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 75c | 785.9$587 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.35 | 251 | 57%143 W · 108 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 27c | 732$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.32 | 318 | 49.4%157 W · 161 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed No | 59c | 703.81$417 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.07 | 179 | 56.4%101 W · 78 L | +13.4wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 36c | 680.57$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.1 | 276 | 44.9%124 W · 152 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 33c | 677.01$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.24 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfed7…e405backed No | 73c | 674.61$492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.15 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 31c | 479.6$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.54 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Yes | 27c | 372.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 149 | 63.1%94 W · 55 L | +8.7wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6325…cfaabacked No | 72c | 271.57$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.04 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dce…b663backed No | 73c | 268.01$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.36 | 19 | 78.9%15 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 72cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 25c | 240.16$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.71 | 361 | 36%130 W · 231 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x447f…4f2abacked No | 63c | 194$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.78 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 69c | 172.04$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.61 | 848 | 50.8%431 W · 417 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Yes | 30c | 160$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 123 | 45.5%56 W · 67 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Yes | 30c | 154.26$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.73 | 200 | 48%96 W · 104 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…1973backed Yes | 22c | 115$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 81 | 30.9%25 W · 56 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 39c | 113.7$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.91 | 2,167 | 37.6%815 W · 1,352 L | +5.7wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8549…41f8backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43a1…2425backed Yes | 24c | 97.81$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.48 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a0c…9db8backed No | 74c | 90$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa209…d90ebacked No | 60c | 89.77$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.51 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +3.3wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +46.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa7bc…794dbacked Yes | 25c | 86.44$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed No | 64c | 78$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.24 | 377 | 50.9%192 W · 185 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x501d…52e2backed Yes | 39c | 76.92$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -3.3wins | -0.33per pick | 43cpaid | -74.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x239b…f8bfbacked No | 72c | 70$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8405…2163backed Yes | 25c | 64$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 100 | 35%35 W · 65 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x489d…f6e3backed Yes | 24c | 57.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 159 | 49.1%78 W · 81 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Yes | 20c | 57.68$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 142 | 41.5%59 W · 83 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09d2…cc27backed Yes | 24c | 57.46$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.79 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Yes | 29c | 44.17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 160 | 13.1%21 W · 139 L | -18.8wins | -0.12per pick | 25cpaid | -47%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d8…19c5backed No | 73c | 35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0aa…6818backed No | 76c | 32.55$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.81 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5581…c029backed No | 70c | 21.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x338f…c6dabacked No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1d…219ebacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 80 | 62.5%50 W · 30 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Noah FA vs. AZ end in a draw?this page
- Will AZ win on 2026-02-19?No won
- Will Noah FA win on 2026-02-19?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.