MLB · resolved market
Athletics vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe78501d7841ea79b0141911713469a55b66c1e60ae3387a11fd4b81342657c30
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,767
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,788
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,767 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x21b7…c861backed Over | 52c | 1,000$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520 | 149 | 38.3%57 W · 92 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 49c | 471.92$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.83 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 27c | 446.03$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.1 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 47c | 254.14$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.9 | 6,123 | 55.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L | +346.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Under | 48c | 201.65$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.06 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcde4…aa62backed Under | 78c | 172.21$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.88 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8337…9aacbacked Over | 60c | 162.67$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x669d…f27abacked Under | 74c | 140.77$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.6 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd8…eecabacked Over | 47c | 138.02$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.87 | 222 | 48.6%108 W · 114 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51f4…3e21backed Under | 73c | 137.73$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.19 | 250 | 34.8%87 W · 163 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 53c | 127.66$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 45c | 126.15$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.67 | 5,149 | 54.7%2,815 W · 2,334 L | +231.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Over | 47c | 123.6$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.09 | 667 | 48.7%325 W · 342 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 66c | 117.5$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.83 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Under | 47c | 102.78$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.53 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Under | 30c | 98.42$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.89 | 515 | 55%283 W · 232 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 53c | 94.68$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.5 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 40c | 83.23$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.96 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Under | 52c | 82.35$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.65 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Over | 46c | 53.2$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.47 | 722 | 47.6%344 W · 378 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 56c | 46.82$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.6 | 1,728 | 50.4%871 W · 857 L | +57.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ba6…cd3ebacked Over | 41c | 41.29$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.77 | 273 | 54.6%149 W · 124 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Under | 48c | 39.88$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.84 | 2,588 | 61.5%1,591 W · 997 L | +72.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe88…67a8backed Under | 48c | 36.33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.89 | 970 | 50.7%492 W · 478 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3092…c9a8backed Under | 52c | 28.14$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.51 | 75 | 56%42 W · 33 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cd…1e2bbacked Over | 49c | 27.45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.45 | 1,057 | 50.2%531 W · 526 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25ed…3e98backed Under | 56c | 26.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 257 | 48.2%124 W · 133 L | -8.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd53b…fc94backed Over | 74c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 53 | 67.9%36 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Athletics vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 8.5this page
- Athletics vs. Texas RangersTexas Rangers won
- Athletics vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5)Athletics won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.