MLB · resolved market
Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x920c2c9b3c5db8d36bf18e2fb9ea1bb00f55fa7db0e45210bb91f1bac18c7240
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Athleticsof Texas Rangers, Athletics
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,689
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,638
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,689 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2b46…684dbacked Texas Rangers | 73c | 3,286$2,411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,410.84 | 191 | 43.5%83 W · 108 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3df…82fabacked Texas Rangers | 26c | 837.6$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.11 | 488 | 50.2%245 W · 243 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e88…9b64backed Athletics | 12c | 800$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$702.7 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 9cpaid | +97.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5124…d922backed Athletics | 12c | 800$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$702.7 | 48 | 18.8%9 W · 39 L | +5.4wins | +0.11per pick | 7cpaid | +162.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Texas Rangers | 9c | 717.72$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.12 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31b0…8c4cbacked Athletics | 62c | 684.04$424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.94 | 115 | 54.8%63 W · 52 L | +8.4wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c41…6275backed Athletics | 18c | 589.81$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$486.46 | 63 | 14.3%9 W · 54 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Texas Rangers | 15c | 551.79$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.18 | 142 | 35.9%51 W · 91 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94ba…001dbacked Athletics | 16c | 300$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.2 | 49 | 18.4%9 W · 40 L | +4.4wins | +0.09per pick | 9cpaid | +131%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Texas Rangers | 35c | 209.83$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.83 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Texas Rangers | 21c | 195.6$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.68 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…7568backed Athletics | 29c | 177$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.31 | 52 | 7.7%4 W · 48 L | -10.3wins | -0.20per pick | 28cpaid | -81.9%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…9b66backed Athletics | 65c | 150.62$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.72 | 481 | 50.7%244 W · 237 L | -19.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Athletics | 79c | 143.97$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.97 | 515 | 55%283 W · 232 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc278…a116backed Texas Rangers | 20c | 131.57$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.31 | 841 | 40.2%338 W · 503 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Athletics | 80c | 129.43$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.89 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa21b…9e94backed Athletics | 64c | 114.41$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.02 | 486 | 51%248 W · 238 L | -18.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5410…dcc7backed Texas Rangers | 28c | 114.15$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.99 | 121 | 28.1%34 W · 87 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a2d…4f43backed Texas Rangers | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Athletics | 63c | 97.78$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.18 | 509 | 49.5%252 W · 257 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Athletics | 74c | 79.31$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.62 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7e4…15eebacked Athletics | 16c | 75$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.3 | 82 | 15.9%13 W · 69 L | +6.4wins | +0.08per pick | 8cpaid | +71.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb3d…58f5backed Texas Rangers | 73c | 66.12$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.47 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -3.9wins | -0.25per pick | 56cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Athletics | 27c | 63.78$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.45 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Texas Rangers | 37c | 49.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40e1…65a4backed Texas Rangers | 27c | 46.31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | +3.6wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe624…2928backed Texas Rangers | 37c | 41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.17 | 496 | 49.8%247 W · 249 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2116…eb8fbacked Athletics | 35c | 40.03$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.04 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.22per pick | 16cpaid | +180.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x31c8…9487backed Athletics | 77c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 270 | 53.7%145 W · 125 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaee4…c3b9backed Athletics | 64c | 38.22$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.76 | 89 | 59.6%53 W · 36 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Texas Rangers | 36c | 35.24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5)this page
- Athletics vs. Texas RangersTexas Rangers won
- Athletics vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 7.5Under won
- Athletics vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 8.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.