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Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 51-52°F on March 5?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$33,799
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$28,618

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,799 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 91 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7830…783fbacked Yes4c2,415$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.4840%0 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x037b…9f20backed Yes16c2,256$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$370.477447.3%35 W · 39 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked Yes10c2,093$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.412506%15 W · 235 L-12.4wins-0.05per pick11cpaid-67%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc369…4e87backed Yes2c2,000$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.56417.2%11 W · 53 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick17cpaid+20.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc9a2…3782backed Yes1c1,990$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.4333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+115.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd769…0f06backed No73c1,603$1,167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$435.911100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes4c1,000$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$411,32232.2%426 W · 896 L-43.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x91c2…a5ecbacked Yes14c816$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.2410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8196…0954backed Yes6c621.51$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.4111126.1%29 W · 82 L+6.5wins+0.06per pick20cpaid+36.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3df4…57dfbacked No32c600$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40811254.5%61 W · 51 L+20.1wins+0.18per pick37cpaid+75.9%equal weight66+0.15 edge/pick
0x89d8…7d2dbacked Yes27c555$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.92450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-17.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaaec…8dc8backed Yes7c544.79$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.2449338.9%192 W · 301 L+49.3wins+0.10per pick29cpaid+51.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes9c478.97$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.072,83711.2%317 W · 2,520 L+17.0wins+0.01per pick11cpaid-3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0113…fee5backed Yes14c470$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.8250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-32.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd3d…0488backed Yes22c444$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.0140%0 W · 4 L-1.8wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x00fa…d2dabacked Yes27c377$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.3810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa980…d9e6backed Yes27c361$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.1920%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x26ed…ec2dbacked Yes9c350$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.4510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8524…7d91backed No76c308.86$235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.641050%5 W · 5 L-2.4wins-0.24per pick74cpaid-33.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes4c300$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.542,11936.1%764 W · 1,355 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1a2e…b01bbacked Yes8c264$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.4110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x82c9…bfe0backed Yes27c262$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.2610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf1e5…38bdbacked Yes10c238.24$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc95…7ed1backed No78c223$173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.731100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3620…7bc0backed No78c204.45$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.771100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf04f…a8c4backed Yes8c164$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.4570%0 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc4de…9b81backed No70c155$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.991361.5%8 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick60cpaid+35.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e86…34d3backed No78c154$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.341100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8eb3…d256backed Yes10c152$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe4a7…0172backed Yes9c146$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.8510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5631…dc61backed Yes12c141$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x061b…3769backed Yes11c140$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.420%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x29ba…528bbacked Yes12c123$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.2710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0450…af70backed Yes26c123$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.98250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick44cpaid-18%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x9798…ce02backed Yes18c122$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.3510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c91…c59bbacked No77c112$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.212100%2 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbe12…f215backed Yes23c105$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.5710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xacc8…7d08backed Yes16c94$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9660235.7%215 W · 387 L+41.3wins+0.07per pick29cpaid+37.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x6437…4460backed Yes26c86$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.3610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xebc8…dea2backed Yes19c86$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.3410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6af5…78b4backed Yes22c82$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.9610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3882…f6d1backed Yes19c82$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.8320%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfc67…18c5backed Yes22c81$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.7410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x917f…6519backed Yes23c81$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.9510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeaca…de7ebacked Yes24c74$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.6110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf7e9…858dbacked Yes30c70$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2110%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a80…074cbacked Yes26c69$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.94333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-46.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe089…e4fdbacked Yes20c68$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5926…a33fbacked No78c67$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.941100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xffc9…750ebacked No74c63$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.381100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd2ee…6e11backed No80c61.44$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.293218.8%6 W · 26 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick17cpaid+64.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x843e…f3d3backed Yes23c61$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.2710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb92…feb9backed Yes24c59$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.0410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9875…2943backed Yes30c58$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b8b…f2d6backed No76c58$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x66b3…f605backed Yes24c54$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.8510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4703…f223backed Yes22c50$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.9510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa133…58f2backed Yes22c48$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa704…f953backed No77c39$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.131100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+30.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0334…1b52backed No70c30$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf66a…14cdbacked No74c30$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3ef1…b97bbacked No74c29$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.541100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf45e…725bbacked No70c29$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.71100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x406d…ec11backed No80c29$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.891100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x13bc…02efbacked No78c28$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.271100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf6fd…1049backed No76c27$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.43250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-34.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8386…cff2backed No76c26$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.191100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6da5…aa68backed No74c26$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.761100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x741d…c6b1backed No70c25$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.52100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+114.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdee6…8ac5backed No70c24$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.22100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.35per pick66cpaid+53.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb077…99b8backed No74c23$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.981100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b08…1e18backed No74c23$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.981100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x157c…22bcbacked No74c22$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.721100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x92ae…7e94backed No74c22$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.721100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4cf0…7b07backed No77c21$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.911100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+30.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf7e6…2cc5backed No51c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.820556.1%115 W · 90 L+25.5wins+0.12per pick44cpaid+40.2%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x9258…b986backed No74c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x22fa…3f15backed No80c20$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.061100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbdd0…3edfbacked No74c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3ce6…b5e1backed No76c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.761100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x669f…06aebacked No70c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.35per pick66cpaid+53.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xadc8…cdd1backed No76c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.761100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c8f…3ea6backed No78c20$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.481100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe0f8…94b3backed No77c19$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.451100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+30.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa573…dd1ebacked No80c19$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.861100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x55d6…2156backed No77c19$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.451100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+30.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa672…a9b4backed No77c19$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.451100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+30.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x36a1…7022backed No77c18$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.211100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+30.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x142a…b261backed No76c18$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.281100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x47dd…4250backed No76c18$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.281100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5959…9e74backed No79c17$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.591100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.